US Sees Slim Chances for Israel-Syria Normalization Before Israeli Elections
The US administration assesses that the prospects for advancing normalization between Israel and Syria before Israel's upcoming elections are very slim, according to a source familiar with the matter who spoke to i24NEWS. The main Syrian demand is for Israel to withdraw from the buffer zone it entered following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime at the end of 2024. American officials believe this demand will significantly hinder progress, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unlikely to approve any withdrawal before the October elections.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, during a visit to Lebanon, stated that Israel intends to remain in the areas it entered in Syria. He informed the US Central Command chief, Admiral Cooper, that Israel will not retreat from the security zone in Syria. This buffer zone was established under the 1974 separation of forces agreement after the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Israel argues that the agreement can no longer be fully implemented due to Syria's inability to enforce its commitments following the regime's collapse. Consequently, the IDF moved into parts of the buffer zone under UN supervision and strategic positions nearby, presenting this as a temporary security measure to prevent hostile actors from exploiting the power vacuum.
The new Syrian government and much of the international community maintain that the 1974 agreement remains legally valid and call on Israel to withdraw and restore previous arrangements. Over the past year, several meetings took place involving Syrian Foreign Minister Assad al-Shibani, Israel's then Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, and Israel's ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter. These US-mediated talks, led by President Trump's special envoy for Syria, Tom Barrack, clarified that any security agreement and progress toward normalization depend on renewing the 1974 buffer zone arrangement.
The latest meeting between the Syrian foreign minister and the Israeli ambassador marked significant progress, including discussions on potential economic and civilian cooperation projects, such as a joint ski resort on Mount Hermon's slopes involving Druze communities from both countries. Meanwhile, Israeli President Isaac Herzog, during a state visit to Romania, expressed aspirations for peace with Syria and opening a new chapter in bilateral relations.
In recent weeks, President Trump repeatedly expressed a desire for Syria to help disarm Hezbollah in Lebanon, a proposal rejected by Israel, Lebanon, and Syria alike. Syrian official al-Shara emphasized Lebanon's precarious position, stating the Shiite community needs calm rather than further fear or conflict, warning against Lebanon being trapped between civil war and war with Israel.
