Israel Unlikely to Withdraw from Southern Syria Buffer Zone Before 2026 Elections

American sources familiar with the matter told The Jerusalem Post that Israel is unlikely to withdraw from areas it entered in southern Syria before the Israeli elections scheduled for October 2026. The sources explained that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not expected to agree to a significant withdrawal at this stage, especially given Syria's basic demand for Israel to retreat from the buffer zone it occupied after the collapse of former President Bashar al-Assad's regime in December 2024.

Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed Israel's intention to remain in the security zone in Syria. Katz told reporters that he informed U.S. Central Command Commander Admiral Cooper that Israel "will not withdraw from the security zone in Syria." The buffer zone was established under a 1974 agreement between Israel and Syria following the 1973 Yom Kippur War. After Assad's fall, Israel justified its entry into the buffer zone and nearby strategic sites by claiming the new Syrian government could not guarantee the implementation of previous security commitments, aiming to prevent hostile actors from exploiting the security vacuum.

Conversely, the new Syrian government, led by President Ahmad al-Sharaa, insists the 1974 agreement remains valid and demands a return to the pre-December 2024 status quo, arguing that any future security arrangement must begin with an Israeli withdrawal. Meetings between Syrian and Israeli officials, mediated by the United States, have discussed the buffer zone issue alongside potential cooperation on economic and civilian projects, including proposals related to the Hermon area. However, American sources believe Syria's insistence on Israeli withdrawal complicates meaningful progress on the security track before Israel's elections.