The “Half of Couples Divorce” Claim Is a Myth

A Hebrew opinion-style explainer argues that the familiar claim that half of marriages end in divorce is outdated and misleading. It says the line, often repeated at weddings, was imported from the United States and became a cliché, but the reality in most Western countries, especially the U.S., is the opposite: divorce rates have been falling since their late-20th-century peak.

The piece traces the myth to the 1960s and 1970s in the U.S., when divorce laws were relaxed after an era of strict legal and social barriers. That change released a buildup of unhappy couples waiting to separate, and by around 1980 the divorce rate reached an all-time high, at about one quarter of married couples. At the time, trend models extrapolated that the figure would keep rising, leading to the prediction that by the 2000s about half of young couples would eventually divorce.

Instead, the trend reversed. The article says Western divorce rates have fallen significantly in the current generation, and in the U.S. they are now a little more than half of what they were at the peak. Israel saw an increase too, but never anywhere near U.S. levels. The writer adds that marriage rates themselves have dropped sharply, while the number of couples living together without formal marriage has more than doubled.

Even after adjusting for fewer weddings, the divorce rate among married couples is also steadily declining. The article attributes this to younger generations, including millennials, who approach marriage more cautiously, often live together first as a trial period, and marry later after establishing themselves personally, academically, and financially. The myth persists, it says, because the number 50% is memorable and because social media and dating apps make marriage seem more fragile, even though couples who do marry now tend to stay together longer.