Despite the ceasefire between the United States and Iran and a memorandum of understanding signed in Switzerland, the future of the Strait of Hormuz remains unsettled. Washington, Tehran, Doha and Muscat are trying to restore full traffic through one of the world’s most important trade routes, but major disputes remain over maritime oversight, possible transit fees, mine clearance, security coordination and international supervision of the deal itself. The reopening of the strait is now seen as a condition for the wider understanding between Washington and Tehran.
The Hormuz corridor links the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea and carries about 20% of global oil and gas trade, according to the US Energy Information Administration. During the war involving the United States, Israel and Iran, traffic almost stopped completely. Shipping firms canceled voyages, energy tankers were delayed and Gulf ports were placed on alert.
A key part of the arrangement is a direct coordination mechanism between the United States and Iran. Qatar’s prime minister and foreign minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, told the Financial Times that the sides agreed to create a “hotline” to prevent misunderstandings during the reopening. He said the main risk is that actors could exploit maritime communications systems to issue fake warnings or orders and impersonate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iranian chief negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf also said a hotline and dedicated contact center would be available for ships facing confusion, technical problems or security concerns.
Mine removal is another urgent task. Under the understandings, mines laid during the fighting should be cleared within the first 30 days of the extended ceasefire. International Maritime Organization Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez told the BBC the organization is preparing a major operation to evacuate more than 11,000 seafarers stranded in the Gulf, working with Iran, Oman, the United States and other regional states once security guarantees are in place.
One of the most sensitive issues is whether Iran will eventually be able to charge transit fees. The memorandum says passage will be fee-free for the next 60 days, but leaves the permanent arrangement unclear. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in the United Arab Emirates that “no country is allowed to collect fees or payments on an international maritime passage.” Al Thani also called this a red line for Qatar, saying, “This is our only exit gate to the world.”
