Inside the ‘Water Mafia’: Why Iran Has Dried Out
Last summer, Iran came close to reaching “zero day.” This is not a reference to a nuclear strike, but to the day when water supplies can no longer meet domestic demand and collapse. Iran’s President, Masoud Pezeshkian, has repeatedly warned that it may be necessary to evacuate residents of Tehran because of the worsening water crisis. Water stress in Iran, which is dealing with the extreme effects of climate change alongside mismanagement and corruption in the water sector, is among the highest in the world. The country’s emergency situation has contributed to social unrest and protests, which have faded into the background amid the war.
Another summer is approaching, and the prolonged regional conflict threatens to further harm the limited water sector, as government resources are diverted to wartime needs. Recent attacks have also shown how vulnerable Iran’s water and energy systems have become. Videos from Tehran showed water channels and drainage pipes going up in flames after strikes on nearby oil reservoirs, suggesting that polluted flows are now passing where clean water once flowed. In the Gulf, an attack on a desalination facility on Qeshm Island and a retaliatory strike on a water facility in Bahrain made clear that water infrastructure itself is becoming a target on the battlefield.
Iran is ranked among the countries facing very high water stress, and it is also one of the worst countries in the world for water scarcity. The World Resources Institute (WRI) ranks Iran 14th on its list of countries suffering water stress worldwide, with 26 of its 31 provinces experiencing “extreme water stress,” and about 80% to 100% of its renewable water resources being fully used each year. Drought cycles in Iran are becoming more frequent and severe. Last autumn marked one of the driest periods in the last 20 years in modern Iranian history. Studies by WWA, World Weather Attribution, showed that such severity should occur once every 80 years in a world without climate change, but in today’s climate it is expected once every five years. If the planet warms by 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, in line with current projections, Iran could face such drought on average every other year. Under these climate conditions, Iran’s water supply is expected to decline by nearly 11% by 2080, while demand is projected to rise by about 30% by 2050. Rivers that sustained settlements and agriculture for centuries are drying up, and groundwater reserves are being pumped at rates far above natural recharge, with more than 70% of major aquifers considered overexploited.
Who needs desalination? Iran hardly desalinated water at all. Investment is needed to fundamentally change agricultural practices. Over the past two decades, under worsening climate change, the country’s renewable water sources have shrunk by more than a third, pushing Iran to the brink of complete water scarcity. Unlike other countries around the world facing extreme water stress, such as Gulf states and even Israel, Iran has almost no desalination, with only 3% of consumed water coming from desalination, and its facilities are outdated and inefficient. Changing the situation will require far-reaching steps, including large financial resources invested in overhauling agricultural practices, building modern infrastructure, and repairing aging urban pipelines. Without the necessary changes, any heat wave, reservoir failure or attack on infrastructure because of the war will push the fragile water system closer to total collapse.
If in recent years the water crisis was mainly the lot of villages and outlying towns, it is now rapidly reaching the major cities. There are historical reasons for this, alongside persistent mismanagement. Beginning in the 1930s, and especially in the 1960s under the “White Revolution,” Iran encouraged water-intensive agriculture and industrial expansion, often without regard for its basic hydrological limits. About 90% of water is used for agriculture, much of it through wasteful flood irrigation on arid land where crops requiring huge amounts of water are grown, such as wheat, rice and sugar beet. At the same time, budgets the state has funneled since the 1980s into the water sector have often gone to politically connected contractors, in what is known as the “water mafia.” The “water mafia” promoted projects that served political elites and created a false image of productivity, while the condition of the water sector deteriorated. For example, granting licenses for hundreds of thousands of wells, many of them unsupervised, accelerated groundwater pumping. In some places, aquifer levels have fallen so drastically that land subsidence has become irreversible, damaging roads, buildings and agricultural land. The mismanagement has eroded public trust and contributed to unrest.
Over the years, the authorities have diverted water from rural areas to urban ones, reinforcing the sense of neglect in those regions. But Tehran, once considered insulated from crises, is now also facing severe shortages, as some 10 million residents rely on mountain reservoirs threatened by shrinking snow cover and rising temperatures. In Isfahan, the Zayandeh-Rud River, which formed the basis for the city’s founding, has remained dry for several years. Climate change has also caused rainfall to fall by as much as 85% in some areas, and the country’s agricultural independence is also at risk, as it is already struggling to produce enough food to feed its population of about 92 million without imports. Growing dependence on imported grain, for example, exposes Iran to volatility in the global market, compounded by international sanctions and local hyperinflation.
Masses of the thirsty rose up in protest after a sense spread that the government was deliberately creating drought in some areas. The regime in Iran suppresses protests with an iron fist, but the crisis has already driven residents into the streets. In 2021, for example, Arab residents of Ahvaz in the western province of Khuzestan led the “Thirsty Uprising,” driven by frustration over water mismanagement and the feeling that the government was deliberately creating drought. In November 2025, a student protest in Tehran was reported after water supply to the dormitories was cut off, alongside smaller local protests in drought-hit areas. In January this year, a broad wave of protests spread amid the economic crisis, including over water shortages and the energy crisis.
Amid the war, the water issue has been pushed to the margins, along with internal unrest in Iran. However, the regime is using the Middle East’s water problem as a weapon, threatening to blow up desalination plants and dams in the Gulf states. Iran has deliberately struck facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, while U.S. strikes reportedly hit one Iranian facility. Iranian leadership has also threatened to destroy desalination plants in the Gulf states in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to strike its energy infrastructure. Attacks on or damage to dams or water infrastructure in Iran could be devastating. Water shortages could also challenge the energy sector. When there is a water shortage, power plants must reduce output or shut down temporarily, even when oil and gas reserves are abundant.
