Iran Faces Power Grid Crisis Amid Heatwave and US Threats to Target Infrastructure

Iran is entering a critical summer period facing severe pressures on its electricity system due to a heatwave, a structural supply-demand gap of thousands of megawatts, and war-related infrastructure damage. In recent days, Tehran has experienced power outages, with industry reporting supply restrictions two days per week and the national electricity company warning of exceptional overloads. The situation is further complicated by direct US threats: President Donald Trump warned that if Iran does not return to the nuclear deal, its power plants and bridges could be targeted for bombings in the coming days.

Tehran's electricity distribution company announced power restrictions starting last Wednesday, citing rising temperatures and increased demand. Residents were directed to check outage schedules online, though unofficial blackout tables circulated, highlighting public sensitivity and uncertainty. The crisis extends beyond Tehran, with nearby cities also experiencing unannounced outages attributed to technical faults or load management. Conservative Iranian media acknowledge the crisis, indicating it is no longer seen as isolated or enemy propaganda.

Official data reveals the depth of the problem. Ardashir Mozhouri, CEO of the Electricity Network Management Company, called the period from July 6 to August 6, 2026, a decisive month for the electricity sector. On July 7 alone, demand surged by 3,500 megawatts to 70,400 megawatts, and between July 14 and 18, average temperatures hit 41 degrees Celsius with demand exceeding 75,500 megawatts. A parliamentary research center analysis projects a realistic peak summer supply-demand gap of about 13,640 megawatts, with supply capacity at 68,420 megawatts and demand expected to surpass 81,000 megawatts.

The shortfall forces load management, planned outages, and industrial restrictions. Nighttime outages are particularly problematic as solar power, which helps reduce daytime demand, is unavailable after dark while air conditioning demand remains high. Industries face two-day weekly electricity limits, with some restrictions extending into evening hours. Government offices must reduce consumption by at least 30% during work hours and 70% afterward. Despite a 13% increase in electricity supplied to industry since the heatwave began, the gap remains significant.

War damage has reduced network capacity by about 4,200 megawatts and damaged over 2,000 infrastructure points, worsening the crisis. The US sanctions indirectly exacerbate the situation by limiting Iran's ability to import spare parts, maintain equipment, and secure foreign currency revenues, all critical for power system upkeep. Trump’s threat to bomb power plants and bridges adds a new dimension of risk to an already fragile system. If realized, such attacks could escalate Iran from managing outages to experiencing widespread grid paralysis during peak summer heat, severely impacting water supply, food storage, industry, and urban transport, and deepening the economic and social crisis.