A strengthening El Niño could become a "super El Niño" by the end of 2026, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with a probability of more than 60%. The weather pattern develops in the equatorial Pacific and can push global temperatures to unusually high levels, making 2026 a candidate to become one of the hottest years ever recorded.
The warning is based in part on advanced satellite measurements from Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich, which tracks sea level and ocean conditions. The data show broad areas where sea level has risen, a sign that ocean water is warming and expanding. NOAA’s assessment follows several months in which sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific stayed at least 0.5 degrees above average.
Scientists at NASA also pointed to early signs in warm-water waves, known as Kelvin waves, moving from the western Pacific toward the east. That movement allows warm water to build up in deeper layers and weakens the natural process that cools waters near the American coast. Subsurface heat is especially important because it can influence weather and climate for months.
Dr. Severine Fournier of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory said conditions in the western Pacific partly resemble those seen in 1997, when a very strong El Niño developed. She said more observations are still needed to determine how intense the current event will become. If the forecasts are correct, the super El Niño could intensify heat waves, worsen fire danger, disrupt rainfall patterns, and affect water supplies, agriculture, and economies in many parts of the world.
