Expert Warns Hezbollah Sees Weakness After Iran Deal

Israeli forces began a wave of strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in Tyre and other areas in southern Lebanon, as military pressure on the group continues. Against that backdrop, Dr. Col. (res.) Michael Milstein, a senior researcher at Tel Aviv University’s Dayan Center and former head of the Palestinian arena at IDF intelligence, said in a Tuesday interview with 103FM that Hezbollah is closely reading Israel’s signals. “Hezbollah is an organization that reads us all the time,” he said, adding that it sees frustration among northern municipal leaders, frustration inside the IDF, and hesitation in the United States.

Milstein argued that these signals make Hezbollah less likely to soften its position in talks. He also pointed to Qatar’s growing role, saying Hezbollah is pleased that “a new card” has entered the deck, referring to Qatar’s return as a mediator in Lebanon after playing the same role in Gaza. He said the Americans are acknowledging Qatar’s work, and Hezbollah views that as an advantage.

Asked about the strategic effect of the fighting, Milstein said Hezbollah has been hit but not stripped of its motivation or ideology. “We have not broken Hezbollah’s motivation,” he said, arguing that Israel often misreads its enemies and cannot easily change their mindset. He added that the same is true in Gaza, where he does not think Israel can engineer the other side’s consciousness with its current tools.

Milstein also warned that the deal signed in Switzerland could affect the northern border. He said the latest talks are largely cosmetic and that the real issue is what kind of arrangement will emerge between Israel and Hezbollah, not between Israel and the Lebanese government. He cited Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem, who recently spoke of Israel’s withdrawal, not tactical, from specific positions such as Beaufort, and of a return to the “October 23 equation.”