Israeli Experts Doubt Lebanon Army Can Disarm Hezbollah After Washington Agreement

One week after the signing of a framework agreement in Washington aimed at disarming Hezbollah and leading to the withdrawal of Israeli Defense Forces from southern Lebanon, skepticism is growing in Israel about the feasibility of implementing the deal. Despite government claims of a strategic achievement, security experts, academics, and public figures warn that the agreement relies on shaky assumptions, particularly regarding the weakened Lebanese government's ability to enforce sovereignty against the Iranian-backed Hezbollah.

Critics highlight Lebanon's political instability as a major obstacle. Middle East expert Dr. Mordechai Kedar expressed deep distrust in Beirut's political system, stating that Lebanese politicians are unreliable and only when they actively fight Hezbollah will trust be warranted. Dr. Gadi Taub described the Lebanese government as a nearly empty shell, warning that Israel is empowering a powerless entity and that the agreement serves as a narrative tool to portray Israel and Lebanon as rescuing the country from Iran. Taub cautioned that if the pilot fails, Israel will be the only dependable actor and will have to take responsibility.

Operational concerns focus on the lack of a contingency plan if the agreement is violated. Retired Brigadier General Oren Solomon questioned what would happen if the pilot fails and called for stricter conditions. He emphasized that Israel must warn Lebanon and the U.S. that failure would lead to Israeli reoccupation up to the Litani River and military action throughout Lebanon, along with demands for compensation of 50 to 100 billion shekels for damages.

The American mediation also faces mixed reactions. Intelligence analyst Sagiv Assoulin described Lebanon as a trap set by Iran for the U.S. and Israel, noting divisions within the U.S. administration between a passive approach and a more assertive stance. He questioned whether the U.S. would support Israel if it acts against violations, especially as Iran and Hezbollah have already declared the agreement humiliating and unimplementable.

Politically, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stressed that Israel's security comes first and that Israel will remain in the security zone as long as threats persist. However, voices warning against complacency persist. Despite the agreement's 14 detailed clauses and a U.S. aid package of $130 million, Israeli public and professional circles remain vigilant, recognizing that Hezbollah's strength in Lebanon likely outweighs any paper signed in Washington.