Coalition leaders are expected to meet Tuesday evening in a discussion that could determine when the Knesset is dissolved and early elections are called. The main dispute is the standoff with the ultra-Orthodox parties, which are pressing for legislation after failing to advance the draft-exemption bill.
Likud and Religious Zionism are wary of moving the ultra-Orthodox-backed bills, fearing public backlash before an election. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, wants to avoid deepening the split in the bloc and keep the coalition together as it heads into the campaign. Because the meeting is not until Tuesday, coalition officials now believe the dissolution process will not begin this week, and if it moves forward at all, it will likely start next week.
The current dissolution bill already passed a preliminary reading on May 20 and its first reading on June 2. The next step would be to set a final election date, with October 20 emerging in political circles as the likely target, followed by committee approval and final readings in the plenum. Meanwhile, after the ultra-Orthodox failed to promote the draft exemption law, they are seeking other legislative wins for their voters.
United Torah Judaism leader Moshe Gafni wants the coalition to advance the bill ending daycare subsidies, which has already passed its preliminary reading, but Netanyahu has decided not to move it. Cabinet Secretary Yossi Fox has also discussed a one-year emergency law to freeze arrests of Torah students, a plan that Shas leader Aryeh Deri is said to support, though coalition sources say it would likely face legal problems. Gafni rejected that idea and demanded the daycare bill instead, warning that if it is not advanced, he wants the Knesset dissolved immediately.
A separate fight concerns the Basic Law on Torah Study, which was supposed to advance in the Constitution Committee led by MK Simcha Rothman but is now on hold. Coalition sources say Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich decided not to push it there because he thought it could hurt him politically, with the official explanation being overload from work on the attorney general split bill. Some in Likud and Religious Zionism prefer early elections over advancing ultra-Orthodox legislation, while others want to finish the attorney general split bill first and present it as a final achievement to right-wing voters. Deri is also holding back from joining the call for dissolution because he wants to complete the repeal of the kosher reform from the previous government. The summer session is set to end on July 17, the last date for completing dissolution under the current timetable.
