Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to finish several major moves before Israel’s next election, including senior appointments and politically significant legislation, but the coalition is running into a widening dispute with the ultra-Orthodox parties. Likud’s constitution committee is expected to meet this week to set the date for the party primaries, while Netanyahu also wants to advance flagship bills before the Knesset is dissolved and the campaign fully begins.
Two central proposals are now stuck because Shas and United Torah Judaism are refusing to give automatic support without a concrete achievement of their own. The ultra-Orthodox factions are pressing for one of three measures, a daycare subsidy law, Basic Law: Torah Study, or legislation that would cancel or freeze arrests of draft dodgers. A coalition source said, “If we support ultra-Orthodox legislation, we will also take an electoral hit, our voters will be furious, they do not like this, and in the end these laws will be struck down by the High Court of Justice.”
Basic Law: Torah Study has already passed a preliminary reading, but further progress requires amendments and more debate. Coalition lawmakers say advancing it now could trigger sharp public backlash amid the war, reserve-service strain, and the broader equality-in-service debate. The third option, a law or temporary order on arresting ultra-Orthodox draft evaders, is seen by Shas as a quicker win, though United Torah Judaism does not view it as a full substitute for the daycare law or a broader settlement on Torah study.
Likud officials say Netanyahu would still like to pass two other bills, one splitting the attorney general’s role and another creating a special commission of inquiry into the failures of October 7, in three readings before the election. But without the ultra-Orthodox parties, the coalition cannot maintain a stable legislative agenda. If the bills fail, Likud intends to turn them into campaign themes, with the attorney general split aimed at the justice system and the inquiry bill focused on how the October 7 failure should be investigated.
