Dan Perry argues that 45 years of trying to defeat Hezbollah alone have failed, and that Israel should stop treating the group primarily as a military problem at the Lebanese border. He says a narrow security zone in southern Lebanon would not end Hezbollah, because the group’s leadership, financing, infrastructure and political influence extend far beyond the frontier, and rocket fire can continue from farther north.
According to Perry, any serious attempt to destroy Hezbollah militarily would require a much larger campaign, likely reaching into the Beqaa Valley, where much of the organization’s support network is concentrated. Such an operation would mean a prolonged occupation of large parts of Lebanon, enormous economic costs, major Israeli casualties and severe harm to Lebanese civilians. Hezbollah would avoid conventional battle, disperse into civilian areas and wage a long guerrilla war, while international pressure would eventually force Israel to stop before achieving a fully Hezbollah-free Lebanon.
He warns that heavy Lebanese destruction only helps Hezbollah by shifting attention away from the group’s role in Lebanon’s crisis and back toward Israel. Each civilian casualty makes it easier for Hezbollah to present itself again as the force of “resistance” and national defense. He also says enthusiasm for permanent buffer zones after October 7 is misguided, because such zones strengthen Hezbollah’s claim that Israel has territorial ambitions in Lebanon and undermine Israel’s legitimacy.
Perry says Israel’s strongest position has always been that it has no claim to Lebanese land, and that this should become the basis of a new strategy. Israel should say it is ready to fully return to the international border and that its sole aim is security, not territory. That would shift diplomacy toward the real question, why an armed group still operates outside Lebanese state authority. He calls for international consensus, stronger involvement by the United States, Europe, moderate Arab governments and the Arab League, support for the Lebanese army and state institutions, and openness to a multinational force or even possible Syrian involvement. If the ceasefire holds, he says, diplomacy should be tried now, while military options remain available if it fails.
