Analyst Warns Israel Lacks a Coherent Lebanon Strategy

Ofer Shelah, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, said Israel faces a major strategic problem in Lebanon after the US-Iran agreement. In an interview with 103FM, he questioned whether Israel can continue acting freely against emerging threats on Lebanese territory.

Shelah said, “I am not sure we are returning to the situation of October 6. It is time to wean ourselves off the idea that everything is either 0 or 1.” He argued that Israel has not built a clear, long-term strategic line against the different threats across the border.

“Israel did not shape a security policy in Lebanon,” Shelah said. He added that Israel’s Lebanon policy is currently based on a physical foothold in the field, but one rooted more in traumas than in an overall concept of what is right for Israel and what it can afford.

Shelah also warned that the agreement could include American acceptance of a new Iranian equation, under which Iran responds with fire to Israeli bombings in Beirut. He said he fears such a development would further constrain Israel’s freedom of action in the northern arena.