A Foreign Affairs commentary by Nathan Swanson, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and head of its Iran strategy project, argues that Iran may overplay its hand after the war by trying to turn the Strait of Hormuz into a revenue source. He says the Islamic Republic emerged from the fighting “intact, bold and armed with new deterrence in the Strait of Hormuz,” but that its next moves could backfire, especially because the interim memorandum leaves core issues, including the nuclear program, unresolved for only 60 days.
Swanson says Hormuz is the most volatile short-term flashpoint. Iran has signaled it does not want the strait to return to its previous status and has moved to impose fees and restrictions as part of an economic recovery plan and a show of force. In May, Tehran created the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, unilaterally widened its maritime zone into waters claimed by Oman and the United Arab Emirates, required prior approval for ship transits, and said “hostile” military vessels were unwelcome.
He warns that monetizing the strait would undermine Iran’s deterrence, speed up global efforts to find alternative trade routes, and risk a renewed regional clash. It would also likely drive away international business because the authority would be tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is sanctioned by the United States, the European Union, Canada, and Australia. Swanson says Europe is already trying to bring in China to pressure Tehran, while regional states may accelerate expensive energy and infrastructure routes that bypass Hormuz entirely. He also calls Iran’s demand to limit military ships unrealistic, given the strategic need for U.S. and French naval access in the Gulf.
A separate Bloomberg report says Donald Trump privately acknowledged that fear of a global economic crash was a major reason he agreed to a temporary peace deal with Iran. The memorandum reopened Hormuz, began the process of lifting sanctions on Iranian oil exports, and sent oil prices down while U.S. stock markets rose. Bloomberg says Trump’s admission weakens Washington’s leverage ahead of the next round of talks in Switzerland, and notes that Iran briefly closed the strait again on Saturday after tensions escalated on the Israel-Lebanon border. Bloomberg Economics also says the 14-point deal is tilted toward Tehran, with 10 provisions favoring Iran, one favoring the U.S., immediate oil-sanctions relief, a path to full sanctions removal, and a proposed $300 billion development plan.
