Lebanon, Not Nuclear Talks, Is Seen as the First Test of the U.S.-Iran Deal

As American and Iranian delegations prepare to begin technical talks in Switzerland under the memorandum of understanding signed between Washington and Tehran, the article argues that the agreement’s first real test will not be Iran’s nuclear program, but Lebanon. According to a document released by Pakistan, a key mediator alongside Qatar, the first technical talks are set to open on June 21 in Bürgenstock, Switzerland, to work through the details of the deal.

Those talks are meant to address Iran’s nuclear program, the fate of its enriched uranium stockpile, sanctions relief, and regional security arrangements. But events in Lebanon are already shaping the atmosphere. In recent days, ceasefires there have been announced and broken rapidly, and Israel says the IDF struck about 300 terrorist targets and killed roughly 100 militants in response to Hezbollah attacks. A senior Israeli political source said Israel will remain in the security zone in southern Lebanon as long as necessary to protect northern communities, and that any further Hezbollah attack will bring another severe response.

Israel’s ambassador to the United States, Yechiel Leiter, said Hezbollah was the side that violated the ceasefire. He said the group fired 147 rockets, 20 drones, and nine anti-tank missiles at Israel within 24 hours, while Israel was acting only in self-defense. Leiter also accused Iran of using Hezbollah as a pressure tool to win concessions in talks with Washington.

Vice President J.D. Vance has made clear in interviews and statements that the U.S. believes any future nuclear deal cannot be separated from regional stability. He said Washington expects Hezbollah to stop firing at Israel, but also does not want to see Israel, in his words, "running wild in Lebanon." Vance said both sides must respect the emerging peace process, and added on Fox that the U.S. does not want to give Tehran "free gifts," but would be willing to adjust its approach if Iran changes its regional behavior and fulfills its commitments. The article says the key risk in the coming weeks is that any Hezbollah rocket fire, Israeli retaliation, or Iranian attempt to apply pressure through regional fronts could undermine the fragile trust on which the whole deal depends.