A memo of understanding signed overnight, between Wednesday and Thursday, shows that several of President Donald Trump’s biggest promises about the war with Iran were not carried through. Trump had vowed that there would be no deal except “unconditional surrender,” said the agreement would clearly limit Iran’s missile program, insisted the Strait of Hormuz would be open to free traffic, and warned that Tehran’s regional proxies would be cut off. The new text, however, leaves those commitments largely unrealized.
On ballistic missiles, Trump told N12’s Barak Ravid before the war that any future deal had to include Iran’s ballistic missile array. A day after the fighting began, he said the U.S. goal was to “wipe off the face of the earth Iran’s ballistic missile array and its missile production capability.” But the memorandum contains no direct reference to ballistic missiles and says issues not included in the document will not be raised in final talks. U.S. reports based on intelligence assessments say Iran still has about 75% of its mobile launcher stockpile and about 70% of its missile stockpile from before the war, more than 1,000 ballistic missiles, a figure also confirmed in Israel.
The same pattern applies to Iran’s proxies. Trump said on the first day of the war that the U.S. would prevent the Iranian regime from financing and directing its “terror armies” outside its borders. Yet the agreement does not mention the Houthis, Hezbollah, or Iraqi militias, effectively leaving them outside the deal’s limits. It also ties the ceasefire in Iran to the ceasefire in Lebanon, strengthening the link between Tehran and Hezbollah.
On the Strait of Hormuz, Trump had repeatedly said the passage would be free after the fighting. Only four days ago, he told The New York Times that the strait would be “permanently exempt from tolls.” The memorandum instead allows Iran to collect fees in the future. It says commercial ships may pass through Hormuz “without payment” for only 60 days, and future arrangements will be decided between Iran and Oman in talks with other regional states. That appears to accept an Iranian demand for a new toll mechanism.
Trump also hinted at regime change in Iran, saying before the war that it would be the “best thing that could happen” to the country and later telling Iranians, “When it is over, take over your regime. It will be easy for you.” But the system in Tehran remains in place, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has grown stronger, and Trump said the day before yesterday that “I never cared about regime change.”
