Three Iranian tankers broke through the U.S. naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz, carrying nearly 5 million barrels of crude oil. They are the first vessels to leave Iran in almost two months, after the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding and ahead of the formal signing of the deal expected on Friday in Geneva.
The U.S. Navy has blocked access to Iranian ports since April, in response to Iran's closure of the strait. CNBC reported that two giant tankers, Dione and Hero 2, owned by the National Iranian Shipping Company and under U.S. sanctions, crossed the restricted zone and moved a combined 3.8 million barrels of oil. A third Iran-linked tanker carrying 1 million barrels also left the blockade area.
"The fact that they broke through the blockade indicates that more Iranian tankers are preparing to return to trade," said Michelle Wiese Bockmann of the maritime intelligence firm Windward. The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. administration plans to let Iran begin selling oil and fuel immediately after the agreement is signed, in return for Iran's commitment to limit its nuclear program.
Even so, shipping companies are not rushing back because of the risks, uncertainty and rising costs, including insurance premiums. Lloyd's analysts said the sector is reacting to the news with skepticism rather than relief, calling the development an unstable pause rather than a return to normal. Kpler estimates that 118 loaded tankers could leave the area within 15 days after the agreement is signed, but warns the surge would likely be a one-off rather than a sustained recovery. MOL chief executive Jutaro Tamura told the Financial Times that many firms will wait to see the deal translated into actual conditions in the strait, saying it may take "another two weeks, if not a month" before shipping feels comfortable crossing again.
