Rehovot Identified as Israel's Most Accurate Election Predictor

An analysis by Madlan, based on 2022 election results in cities with over 50,000 residents, has identified Rehovot as the Israeli city whose voting patterns most closely mirror the national outcome. The study, reported by Ynet on September 5, found that Rehovot, along with Petah Tikva, Haifa, Hadera, Netanya, Holon, and Rosh Ha'ayin, demonstrated results highly similar to the overall national vote.

Rehovot, often dubbed "Israeli Ohio" due to its historical predictive accuracy, showed a minimal average deviation of just 2.05 percentage points across 13 major parties compared to national results. For instance, Likud received 25.7% in Rehovot versus 23.4% nationally, and Yesh Atid garnered 23.1% compared to 17.8% nationwide. This similarity is attributed to Rehovot's demographic makeup, which lacks a significant Arab population and reflects a broad spectrum of the Israeli electorate.

Conversely, cities at the other end of the spectrum, with results significantly diverging from the national trend, are predominantly ultra-Orthodox and Arab communities. These include Elad, Bnei Brak, Beitar Illit, Modi'in Illit, and Umm al-Fahm, where specific parties like Yahadut HaTorah and Shas received overwhelming majorities, far exceeding their national support levels.

Major cities like Jerusalem and Tel Aviv also showed considerable deviations. In Jerusalem, Yahadut HaTorah was the largest party, and Shas received 2.5 times more votes than Yesh Atid. Tel Aviv, in contrast, saw Yesh Atid nearly double Likud's vote share, with Meretz performing strongly locally despite failing to cross the national electoral threshold. Tel Aviv ranked 28th and Jerusalem 29th in the similarity analysis.

Madlan CEO Tal Kopel explained that cities mirroring national results are typically "middle Israel", geographically and socio-economically central, with diverse populations where no single sector dominates. These are long-established, mid-to-large sized cities, neither the wealthiest nor the poorest, representing Israel in miniature.