Iranian Dissident Fears Civil War, Doubts Popular Uprising

An Iranian opposition figure, speaking to i24NEWS from Iran on Thursday, expressed skepticism about the possibility of a popular uprising overthrowing the current regime. He believes the momentum for change that existed in the immediate aftermath of recent events has dissipated, with citizens becoming accustomed to the situation and regime supporters regaining confidence and control.

The dissident specifically criticized the Bassij paramilitary force, linked to the Revolutionary Guards, calling it a key pillar of the regime. He argued that the problem lies not only with the authorities but also with their supporters, stating that the regime "feeds" on this militant base.

Regarding the population's ability to effect change, he suggested that ordinary citizens alone cannot achieve this, citing the power of state propaganda, which he claims is unmatched globally. He also relayed a sentiment among some Iranians that Israel could end the situation if it had sole authority, but that the outcome also depends on the U.S. president.

He warned against widespread arming of the population, stating, "I am truly afraid of a civil war. If Iranians arm themselves, who knows where these weapons will end up?" The dissident concluded that a successful overthrow would require organized groups capable of governing, rather than a spontaneous citizen movement.