Spain’s unexpected 0-0 draw with Cape Verde in the World Cup yesterday cost one Polymarket user almost $1 million. The bettor had taken what looked like one of the safest wagers on the board, given the huge gap between the teams on paper.
Spain, the reigning European champion after winning the last Euro, is still seen as one of the favorites to lift the World Cup on July 19. Goldman Sachs gives Spain a 26% chance to win the tournament. Cape Verde, by contrast, has never qualified for a World Cup and does not have any widely known players.
The tie stunned almost everyone and was compared to Argentina’s loss to Saudi Arabia in the opening round of the previous World Cup. Spain fans can at least note that Argentina later went on to win that tournament. Total betting volume on the match in Polymarket reached $64 million, and the platform had priced Spain’s chances of winning at 92%.
The biggest loser was a user named betoor19, who opened his account last October and, until yesterday, had never won or lost more than $9,000 on a single bet. Another user, who wagered $427,000 that Spain would not win, turned that position into a $4.7 million payout. Cape Verde’s success was credited largely to 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha, who made eight saves from near-certain scoring chances. He also said new visa rules in several countries, including a requirement to post a bond of up to $15,000, kept his mother from attending the game.
