Iran-U.S. Understanding May Leave Missiles Outside the Deal, Raising Alarm in Israel and Europe

Three days before a planned signing in Switzerland of a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States, the full terms remain unknown, even though the deal has already been signed electronically and announced by President Donald Trump. Iranian officials continue to insist the understanding includes a ceasefire in Lebanon, which Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said will take effect on Friday.

Araghchi said the implementation of the memorandum begins Friday after what he described as an immediate and final end to fighting on all fronts, including Lebanon. He warned that any Israeli military attack on Lebanon from now on would violate the understanding with Washington. He also said the talks were split into two stages because of difficulties reaching agreement, with the first stage covering the end of the war, the Strait of Hormuz, the release of frozen Iranian funds and reconstruction, followed by 60 more days of negotiations toward a final deal on the nuclear issue and sanctions relief.

Israel fears that during those two months Iran could race toward a bomb. Another major issue, ballistic missiles, apparently does not appear in the memorandum at all. Tehran has traditionally refused to discuss missiles, calling them self-defense, but Europe is deeply concerned because Iran has long-range missiles that can reach the continent. A senior European diplomat called the deal a failure and a strategic threat to Europe, saying he was surprised the United States did not insist on the issue.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said last night that Iran had planned to develop 20,000 ballistic missiles, calling it an existential threat to Israel. He said the danger is that a mass launch could cause damage equivalent to a small atomic bomb. Israel therefore struck Iranian missile production sites to prevent further expansion, though officials acknowledge Iran can find substitutes and may get help from China. During the war, Iran fired thousands of ballistic missiles at Israel and Gulf states, and some reached Europe, including a British base in Cyprus. French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen both urged that missiles be included in any final agreement, along with the nuclear program and Iran’s destabilizing regional activity.

The article says the American side will largely determine whether missiles are included, but Israel’s assessment is that a final agreement may never materialize. In that case, not only missiles, but also the nuclear issue and Iran’s regional proxies would likely remain outside any deal. The piece also notes concern over Iran’s drone program and cites the March launch of missiles at Diego Garcia, which suggested a longer range than Israeli estimates of 3,000 kilometers. Araghchi said in February that Iran had deliberately capped missile range at 2,000 kilometers, but a 4,000-kilometer range would put much of Europe, parts of Africa, and even areas as far as India and China within reach.