Israel Polls Show Both Coalition and Opposition Losing Ground Ahead of Elections

Israel is heading to elections, and the latest aggregated polls reveal an unusual trend: both the coalition and opposition blocs are losing support simultaneously. The coalition, including the new party led by Ofer Winter, holds 53 seats, while the opposition without the Arab parties has 55 seats. The Arab parties combined have 12 seats.

The top party remains the National Unity Party led by Benny Gantz, which lost one seat to stand at 24, narrowly ahead of Likud, which dropped two seats to 23. Yamina, led by Naftali Bennett, remains steady at 12 seats, and the Democratic Camp holds 10. Shas, United Torah Judaism, and Otzma Yehudit each maintain 8 seats, while Israel Beytenu has 9. The Joint List, which now includes Balad alongside Hadash-Ta'al, increased from 5 to 7 seats, and Ra'am holds 5. Winter's new party "Amcha Israel" crosses the electoral threshold in most polls, gaining between 4 and 8 seats. Religious Zionism passes the threshold in about half the polls, with 4-5 seats.

The coalition's weakening is largely due to Winter's party drawing votes from both Likud and Religious Zionism, which only passed the threshold in half the surveys compared to all last week. Likud's decline is particularly sharp in an i24news poll, dropping from 31 to 26 seats, and in a Channel 13 poll, it fell below 20 seats for the first time this election cycle.

On the opposition side, the merger of Hadash-Ta'al with Balad to form the Joint List explains the shift, as Ra'am's numbers remain stable. Additionally, polls show a shift in preferred prime minister candidates: Benny Gantz leads Benjamin Netanyahu in nearly all surveys except one from Channel 14, and Naftali Bennett also surpasses Netanyahu in several polls.

These dynamics highlight a fragmented political landscape ahead of the elections, with shifting alliances and voter preferences affecting both major blocs.