Reuters: Iran Emerges Stronger as Gulf States Lose Confidence in U.S. Protection
Reuters assessed on Monday that the end of the U.S.-Iran war left the regional balance largely unchanged, but politically strengthened Iran and weakened Gulf confidence in Washington. Former U.S. diplomat Aaron David Miller called Operation "Rage of the Fierce" an "epic failure." Reuters said Gulf sources, diplomats and analysts view Iran as still capable of threatening Gulf states and the global energy market, while the United States again exposed the limits of its military power against a resilient adversary.
According to the report, Washington’s gain was mainly ending a long, costly confrontation without achieving its stated goals, which included dismantling Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. Iran’s gain was survival after absorbing major U.S. and Israeli strikes, while most of its political establishment remained intact. Reuters said the biggest shock was in the Sunni Gulf states, which it described as the war’s biggest losers because decades of stability and economic growth now face risk, and they are left to absorb the consequences of decisions made elsewhere.
Sources in the Gulf told Reuters that President Donald Trump’s deal has already changed thinking about American protection and Iran’s staying power. The report said Gulf states are likely to try to appease Iran and coexist with it rather than seek more confrontation. One senior official said, "Any de-escalation is positive, but the situation is much worse than it was before the war." Reuters also quoted Israeli officials saying their demands were not met, including dismantling Iran’s nuclear program and addressing its ballistic missile project. They said Israel was surprised when Trump announced last week that a deal was close, and noted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s statement that Israel was not a party to the agreement.
The article said the war left Gulf states facing the same strategic dilemma, Iran’s military power and potential ability to control the Strait of Hormuz versus the fragility of their economies, which suffered heavy damage. Lebanese-American scholar Fawaz Gerges said Gulf states do not trust Iran, had hoped the U.S. would bring regime change, and now realize they cannot rely on either the U.S. or Israel for security or stability. Saudi analyst Abdulaziz Sager was even harsher, saying Washington failed to achieve regime change or stop the nuclear program, but gave Iran new strategic cards, including using Hormuz as an economic weapon. He said the Americans moved from "unconditional surrender" to "an understanding agreement" and "blinked." Miller said the accord is not a solution but "a ticket to negotiations," leaving key issues unresolved, including enriched uranium, sanctions relief and securing the Strait of Hormuz.
