Survey Reveals Key Battlegrounds Among Israeli Voters Within Right and Opposition Camps

A new survey from the "Israel Barometer" project by the Masrek-Rabid Institute for Channel 7 reveals where the main competition for undecided voters is taking place among Israeli political parties. Within the right-wing camp, most voter shifts occur internally, with Likud voters primarily considering Otzma Yehudit as their second choice, while Otzma Yehudit supporters favor Religious Zionism and Likud as alternatives. Among Religious Zionism voters, preferences split between Otzma Yehudit and Winter, with differences noted between the Haredi-religious and other Religious Zionism supporters.

On the opposition side, voter pools overlap significantly. Supporters of Yesh Atid rank Naftali Bennett's party as their main alternative, followed by Avigdor Lieberman’s party. Bennett’s voters predominantly see Yesh Atid as their second choice, and Lieberman’s supporters also consider Yesh Atid a key alternative. Approximately 76% of left-wing voters remain within the left spectrum, with 18% open to centrist parties and only 6% considering right-wing options. Among voters for the Trooper party, about 46% stay within left-wing or Trooper options, indicating some fluidity but mostly within the same political camp.

Smaller parties show diverse patterns. For Noam voters, Religious Zionism is the main alternative, reflecting internal right-wing movement. Winter’s voters are more dispersed, with Otzma Yehudit, Likud, and Trooper as alternatives. Identity party voters display an even more scattered pattern, including Lieberman and right-wing parties. Trooper and Ardan parties are closely linked to each other and to opposition parties.

The Religious Zionism party shows a split between its Haredi-religious core, which remains highly loyal over time, and other voters who exhibit greater political mobility. Despite most voter shifts occurring within camps, some cross-camp movement exists: 7.2% of right-wing voters consider left-wing or Trooper parties among their top choices, while 6.1% of left-wing voters include right-wing parties as alternatives. The right-wing camp retains a larger share of voters firmly within its ranks, whereas the left-wing camp has a bigger group open to centrist parties.

The report concludes that the right’s main challenge is internal competition for undecided voters, while the left faces both internal competition and significant rivalry from centrist parties. The next article in the series will analyze which parties hold the greatest growth potential and the origins of undecided voters, exploring implications for the Knesset seat distribution.