Hamas Maintains Control in Gaza Despite Israeli Military Gains and Prepares for 2026 Elections

Nearly three years after the outbreak of war and Israel's unprecedented military strikes that decimated much of Hamas's leadership and infrastructure, the organization remains a central governing force in the Gaza Strip. Despite significant damage to Hamas's military wing, Israel has been unable to establish a political or civilian alternative to replace Hamas's control over the population, civil services, and public order in Gaza.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned early in the conflict that dismantling Hamas's military power alone would not suffice without creating a political alternative. However, political disagreements, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's rejection of Palestinian Authority control over Gaza, led to a stalemate. Attempts to promote local or international civilian governance structures failed to materialize into an effective authority, leaving Hamas's administrative and security mechanisms largely intact.

Hamas has reportedly recruited between 10,000 and 15,000 new operatives since the war began and continues to pay salaries to tens of thousands of civil servants, collect taxes, and regulate economic activity in areas under its influence. The group also maintains diplomatic contacts with Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, and even the United States, with senior Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya meeting U.S. envoy Jared Kushner in Egypt. Hamas is actively preparing to re-enter Palestinian politics through planned legislative elections in November 2026, seeking alliances with Islamic Jihad and other factions.

Israeli military officials emphasize their ongoing commitment to disarm Hamas and prevent its resurgence, but security sources acknowledge the difficulty of fully eradicating Hamas's civilian governance. Meanwhile, critics, including members of the U.S.-established "Peace Council," argue that recent Israeli military actions are tactically ineffective and may inadvertently reinforce Hamas's civilian and military control.

The situation highlights a paradox: Israel has severely weakened Hamas militarily but has not succeeded in removing it as a political actor. With no viable alternative authority established, Hamas remains a key player in Gaza's future, continuing to influence daily life and political developments despite the war's toll.