Netanyahu Links Turkey Tensions to Upcoming Israeli Elections Amid Regional Military Moves
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has placed Turkey at the center of his election campaign, highlighting regional security concerns. CNN reported on a large billboard on a Tel Aviv highway depicting Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan alongside leaders of Iran, Hezbollah, and New York City as enemies of Israel, with the slogan warning against Netanyahu's defeat. Shortly after, Israel struck the Abu Duhur airbase in northern Syria to prevent Turkish military entrenchment there. Israeli intelligence had uncovered Turkish plans to deploy troops, drones, and air defense systems at the base, which would limit Israel's freedom of action in Syrian airspace and shift the strategic balance.
Netanyahu told Channel 9 that Israel created a security zone in Syria to block jihadist incursions and warned Turkey against moving southward from its current positions in northern Syria. He conveyed this message to both the Syrian regime and Turkey, emphasizing that Turkey intended to break the existing status quo. When diplomatic warnings failed, Israel resorted to kinetic actions to clarify its stance. Netanyahu stressed the need for measured and resolute responses amid shifting regional power dynamics, noting Iran's declining influence and the rise of other forces.
Senior Israeli officials view Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as facing a critical decision on Syria's future direction. Assad can either accept Israeli-imposed rules to avoid conflict or align with Turkey to counter Israeli strikes. The U.S. is reportedly trying to calm tensions between Turkey and Israel, with both sides engaged in a strategic game to establish operational norms in Syria. Israeli officials expressed disappointment over the U.S. lifting sanctions on Assad, fearing it legitimizes his regime despite Western hopes for change.
A senior Israeli source described Syria as a significant medium- and long-term threat, with Assad's regime and jihadist groups like Al-Qaeda posing challenges. The source criticized U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrett for harming Israeli interests. Europe is also seen as gradually legitimizing Assad to facilitate refugee returns, despite intelligence reports labeling him a "terrorist in a suit." Israel aims to prevent Syria from rebuilding military capabilities that could threaten it, particularly by blocking significant troop deployments in southern Syria and limiting the influence of jihadist leader Joulani near the Israeli border.
The source noted that Erdogan aspires to be a regional leader akin to Saladin, as does Assad, while Joulani seeks Turkish support but ultimately wants to expand his own influence without Turkish dominance. Although Turkey could become a long-term threat, Israel does not foresee immediate war with Ankara. The immediate priority remains curbing Assad's power growth and preserving Israel's freedom of action in Syrian airspace, alongside maintaining cooperation with local Druze communities and international legitimacy for Israeli operations.
