Dramatic Likud Primaries Reveal Surprises and Close Races Among Top Politicians

The Likud party experienced a dramatic night during its primaries, with about 80% of votes counted by early Tuesday morning. Minister Eli Cohen leads the national list with a margin of over 3,000 votes ahead of the second place. A tight contest unfolds between Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana and Minister Yariv Levin, who have exchanged positions as counting progressed. Miri Regev solidifies her position as the top woman in the party, holding fourth place by a significant margin.

One of the night's biggest surprises is Coalition Chairman Ofir Katz, who secured a spot in the top five, surpassing many veteran ministers and Knesset members despite not holding a ministerial position. Another unexpected success is Almog Cohen, a recent Likud member with a brief campaign, who entered the top ten with support from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Other notable achievements include Moshe Saada and Amichai Shikli, who outperformed several established politicians.

Among the notable losers is Minister Nir Barkat, a longtime prominent figure in Likud, who fell to near the bottom of realistic list positions and is narrowly ahead of Minister Zeev Elkin by about 294 votes. Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chairman Boaz Bismuth also underperformed, ranking around 14th or 15th place, closely contesting with David Bitan, who despite internal opposition, is expected to retain his Knesset seat. Tali Gottlieb, initially projected as a top contender and potential leading woman, currently ranks around 12th, behind Miri Regev by approximately 9,000 votes.

A dramatic battle is ongoing for the third guaranteed female spot, with Minister Gila Gamliel leading Knesset member Eti Atiya by about 150 votes, with remaining ballots potentially decisive. In the "new woman" category, Keren Bublil Atias leads candidates supported by Netanyahu. Several ministers, including Avi Dichter, Idit Silman, and Mai Golan, are far from realistic positions and may not enter the next Knesset without significant changes or reserved spots. Zeev Elkin also faces serious risk of exclusion.

In regional contests, Netanyahu-backed candidates show strong performances: Erez Tadmor leads in Jerusalem, Judea, Samaria, and the Shephelah; Shlomo Lerner leads in Dan and Tel Aviv; and Shuki Ohana leads in the Galilee and the Valleys. The Coastal Plain district features a close race between attorney Effi Naveh and Shay Galili, with the winner likely to be placed around 36th on the list, a low realistic chance.

A total of 75,177 Likud members voted, representing 53.5% turnout. Results from 107 polling stations were processed overnight at Bloomfield Stadium. Due to reserved spots and regional quotas, only about the top 16 on the national list are currently considered secure. Close vote margins at the bottom of the list mean final outcomes remain uncertain, especially in contests between Barkat and Elkin, Gamliel and Atiya, and Bitan and Bismuth. The final list leading Likud into the upcoming elections will be determined once all votes are counted.