Netanyahu Prepared for New Israeli Elections Amid Trump’s Cautious Stance

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is willing to accept the possibility of new elections if it is the last option to remain in power. However, the White House is particularly concerned about this scenario. The history between Netanyahu and former U.S. President Donald Trump adds complexity to the situation. Trump has previously intervened in Israeli elections, notably recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights days before the April 2019 elections, a move he claimed helped Netanyahu. Currently, Trump is holding back from such direct involvement.

Israeli opposition leaders, including Gadi Eizenkot, Naftali Bennett, and Yair Lapid, have communicated through intermediaries with Trump’s circle, urging him to remain neutral in the upcoming elections. This reflects how influential Trump’s position has become in Israeli politics even before he decides whether to intervene. Despite some frustrations, Trump maintains a personal liking for Netanyahu but has reportedly called him "his own worst enemy" in private conversations.

Support in Israel for some of Trump’s policies has waned, especially after the Iran agreement and U.S. restrictions on Israeli actions in Iran, Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon. Trump himself faces political limits, as aggressive interference in Israeli elections could damage his standing among his supporters. The White House is also focused on advancing a peace council plan in Gaza, with envoys including Jared Kushner, Nikolay Mladenov, and Tony Blair visiting the region to promote this initiative, which is expected to be a key issue with Netanyahu.

Tensions remain across multiple fronts: Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, and Iran, complicating U.S.-Israeli coordination. While there is no indication Trump will become an adversary of Israel or Netanyahu, there is a risk that he might increasingly blame Jerusalem for delays in progress. Trump still holds political cards that Netanyahu might need as elections approach, such as public endorsements or moves regarding President Isaac Herzog’s pardon issue, but he has not yet played them. Netanyahu’s maneuvering room with U.S. demands is expected to shrink as the elections near.