US Focus on Iran War Undermines Deterrence Against China in Asia, Allies Worry
The escalating conflict between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea has highlighted growing doubts among US allies in Asia about Washington's ability to contain Beijing's expansion amid the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran. According to the New York Times, regional countries fear that America's military resource depletion and focus on the Middle East will limit its response in a potential confrontation with China. These concerns intensified following the recent severe clash at Second Thomas Shoal, a disputed territory where the Philippines maintains a presence on a deliberately grounded World War II-era ship, Sierra Madre. Despite a decade-old international tribunal ruling supporting Manila's claim, China does not recognize it and recently deployed a coast guard vessel to encircle the ship. During the confrontation, Chinese coast guard personnel reportedly assaulted a Filipino soldier, causing a head injury, with China blaming the Philippines for provoking the incident.
The US ambassador to the Philippines expressed strong support for Manila, reaffirming the longstanding alliance, yet the New York Times noted no expectation that China will reduce its assertive activities in the region soon. Central to the doubts is the strain on the US military caused by the Iran conflict, which has led to shortages of critical weaponry such as air defense interceptors after Iranian missile and drone attacks forced US forces to abandon bases and destroyed facilities in the Middle East. This situation illustrates to Asian nations China's capability, with a far stronger military than Iran, to damage US forces and bases in a regional war.
Meanwhile, China continues to demonstrate its military power, conducting a rare intercontinental ballistic missile test from a nuclear submarine in early July. Concurrently, the Trump administration has decided to close US consulates in Japan and Indonesia, a move briefed to Congress. Gregory Meeks, senior Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, criticized Trump's second term as a "massive failure for US interests in Asia," calling the administration's policies "a gift to China" that harms US credibility and national security.
The New York Times also highlighted that uncertainty extends beyond military matters. Trump's trade war, which has affected Southeast Asian countries, has signaled to US allies that America could also be an economic rival. US administrations have struggled to present a comprehensive economic vision to compete with China, which remains the largest trading partner for many regional countries. Mira Rapp-Hooper, a former Biden National Security Council member, said Southeast Asian nations do not want to be caught in a great power conflict but still want the US to serve as a healthy counterbalance to China. The perception of US weakening as an alternative to Beijing has left a significant impact on partnerships.
Concerns about US retreat are further fueled by the warming ties between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. At a May summit in Beijing, Trump praised Xi and prepared to host him for a state visit in Washington in late September. The New York Times noted that Trump's attempt to establish a "G2" relationship with China undermines the bipartisan consensus formed over the past decade in Washington to treat Beijing as a strategic competitor.
