Data Contradicts Trump’s Claim That Strait of Hormuz Is Open Amid Oil Supply Concerns

Despite President Donald Trump’s assertion that the Strait of Hormuz remains under American control and open for navigation, recent data and reports indicate otherwise. On Tuesday, only 14 vessels crossed the strait, most through the Iran-controlled waterway, reflecting a significant decline from the pre-conflict average of about 130 daily crossings. The U.S. Navy escorts a limited number of oil tankers through the strait in an attempt to challenge Iran’s blockade, but this has not substantially altered the overall situation.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a public warning about rapidly depleting global oil reserves, emphasizing the urgency of reopening the strait. Global oil inventories fell below 7.9 billion barrels for the first time since April 2025, with a daily drawdown rate of 2.2 million barrels last month. The IEA projects a global oil market deficit of 1.8 million barrels per day in the coming months, significantly higher than previous forecasts.

Oil prices have surged to around $88 per barrel, up sharply from about $73 before the conflict, though still below the peak of approximately $120 during the crisis. This sustained high price poses economic challenges worldwide and complicates President Trump’s prospects ahead of the November midterm elections.

Reports from The Wall Street Journal suggest Trump may declare victory over Iran if the strait reopens, even without a nuclear deal. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman are negotiating the strait’s reopening, but Tehran demands substantial concessions from the U.S. Trump remains confident that economic pressure will force Iran to compromise.

Summary: President Trump claims U.S. control over the Strait of Hormuz, but limited vessel crossings and an Iranian blockade persist. The IEA warns of rapidly dwindling oil reserves amid rising prices, while negotiations continue with Iran and Oman over reopening the strategic waterway.