Iran’s Hostage Politics: Lebanon at the Center of a Coercion Strategy
Footage of damage to a building in Beirut’s Dahiyeh / social media documentation under Section 27A of the Copyright Law
Iran has attacked Israel in several rounds. This is no longer a localized “response,” and not just another routine signal from the Islamic Republic. Tehran is trying to bring all the players into the picture: Israel, Lebanon, the Gulf states, Trump and the negotiating table. The fire directed at Israel is meant to send a simple message: if the political framework does not mature under conditions favorable to Tehran, no arena will be left out of the game. This is not only a military escalation, it is a method of extortion. Iran seeks to turn Israel into a political hostage. It fires at the Israeli home front, presents it as a response to harm to Hezbollah, and thereby binds Lebanon to itself. The message is this, Hezbollah is Iran, and Lebanon is Iran. If Israel harms the Lebanese arm of the axis, Tehran will present it as harm to itself and demand a right of response. The implication is dangerous. So far, Iran has mainly used Gulf states as hostages, Hormuz, American bases, ports, airports and energy routes. Now it is trying to add Israel to the list. From its perspective, the Israeli home front becomes a mortgaged asset on the negotiating table. Every barrage is meant to tell Trump, the path to an arrangement will run through consideration of our demands. Every strike is meant to tell the Gulf, if you pressure us, you will pay too. And every response is meant to tell the Lebanese government, do not imagine full sovereignty without Hezbollah’s consent and without approval from Tehran.
The mortgaged asset. A show of support for Hezbollah in Lebanon / Reuters
Lebanon is not a side arena here, it is the heart of the extortion mechanism. Hezbollah is Iran’s main card in the Shiite axis. It is not only an armed terrorist organization, it is a political asset, a reservoir of power and an open claim that Tehran can present at any moment. A strong Hezbollah helps Iran מול Washington, because it allows it to threaten Israel, paralyze Lebanon, alarm the Gulf, and tell the Americans, any attempt to push us back will shake the entire region. Therefore, any Israeli strike on Hezbollah is also a strike on Iran’s mortgaged asset. This is also how the message to the Lebanese government must be understood. President Joseph Aoun effectively said what many in Lebanon understand, Iran is using Lebanon as leverage against the United States. More on Walla
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From Iran’s perspective, Lebanon is not a state to be freed, it is a deposit. Damage in the Tyre district in Lebanon / Reuters
Tehran is nurturing a circle of political hostages
Tehran, for its part, is now issuing a mafia-style warning, do not think about a Lebanon that is too sovereign, do not think about an agreement that reduces Hezbollah, do not think that it is possible to return land, security and authority to the Lebanese state without the axis exacting a price. Lebanon, in Iran’s view, is not a state to be released, it is a deposit intended to guarantee the regime’s power. This is the circle of political hostages that Iran is cultivating. Hezbollah stretches the line in Lebanon. Israel responds. Iran fires at Israel. The Gulf grows alarmed at the possibility that the fire will spill into Hormuz, seaports, airports and American bases. Trump, who seeks to put the political track back on course, tries to end each round quickly and bring the sides back to the table. And so Iran gains the most important thing from its perspective, time, maneuvering room, and continued Hezbollah control in Lebanon.
The bottom line is this, Iran is not holding only missiles. It is holding arenas hostage. The Gulf, Lebanon, Hezbollah and now also the Israeli home front, all are becoming political instruments of coercion in its eyes. If this method is accepted, every future arrangement will not weaken the Iranian mafia, it will only teach it that the longer the list of hostages grows, the better the terms of the deal become.
