Trump’s Surprising Remark: Will Netanyahu Skip the Knesset Election?

One head or head-to-head: what lies behind Trump’s remark that he is not sure Netanyahu will run in the election? / Image processing, Reuven Castro, Reuters

Remember the good old days when news headlines waited until the evening to be gathered? Well, one of the indirect effects of Donald Trump’s current term is that they pile up at night, afternoon and evening on the U.S. East Coast, and wait for most Israelis as they wake up for their morning coffee. But even in such a reality, where we have already grown used to the fact that the “main thing comes first” has shifted from the evening to the next morning, this morning’s headline managed to surprise: the U.S. president raised doubts about the intention of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to run in the election that will be held here in four months. A stunning headline, no doubt, especially when it comes from Trump and not, say, from opposition propagandists. So what is behind this unusual statement? Let us examine all the possibilities.

The first is that Trump was “just talking.” We have all come to know the man and know that he can ramble for hours about subjects he knows nothing about. Therefore, the phrase “so he said” applies. Nonsense, plain and simple. The problem with this explanation is that we have already learned that even when Trump rambles without understanding, there is intent behind his words, meaning, a reflection of his own wish. That is, it does not mean Trump thinks Netanyahu will not run, or even that he wants him not to, but that it was important to him to say the idea out loud. If so, why? From here the possibilities split in two opposite directions. The first is that Trump decided to politically eliminate Netanyahu, and the second is that he דווקא wants to build him up ahead of the election. Let us try to go with both possibilities, but first, a few words about the very situation itself. Whoever votes influences, especially if he is the president of the United States / Reuters

We have been hearing a lot lately from Washington that responsibility for the security of Israel’s citizens is being transferred from its government to the Washington administration. Usually these things are said as criticism, loss of sovereignty, or as an excuse, what do you want, should we fight with the president of the United States? And they mostly refer to actions the Americans prevent the Israeli government from taking, from annexing territory to strikes in the Dahieh or in Iran. And yet, without our noticing, the authority of the U.S. president has shifted from commands of “do not” to “do.” In other words, incredible as it may sound, and despite the fact that elections are decided by the citizens of Israel, it is clear to everyone that only Trump alone will determine the outcome. Unconditional and unequivocal support for Netanyahu may not give him a majority, but it would bring him very close to another round of elections, which is beginning to look like the best possible outcome for him. By contrast, a disavowal, even if not explicit but merely a cold shoulder, would seal Netanyahu’s fate. Just imagine what would happen if Trump were to embrace, even metaphorically, “he is a great guy, I am sure he will be a wonderful prime minister,” Naftali Bennett, Gadi Eisenkot and maybe even Avigdor Liberman? Checkmate.

Now let us return to the T-junction where one can turn right or left, and first turn right, meaning, the possibility that Trump still desires Netanyahu’s good and the surprising late-night statement was meant to serve him. It could be at the level of image, to create some kind of fabricated rift between him and Netanyahu, who has recently been accused, precisely by right-wing circles in Israel, of losing control over security and handing it over, or abandoning it, to American interests. See, Trump supposedly says, Netanyahu is so not my puppet that I do not even know what his political plans are... The plausibility of this possibility is slim. Both because this is a very indirect and sophisticated message, not typical of either man, and because Trump does not usually boast about not having influence over someone.

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Netanyahu between Levin and Karhi. Not pictured: Gideon Sa'ar / Reuven Castro

All options on the table

If so, let us move to the second option under the thesis that Trump is helping Netanyahu: it is important to Netanyahu that we think he may not run anytime soon. How does that serve Netanyahu? In more than one way, but בעיקר in everything related to moves to end his trial. Netanyahu is a politician who avoids bottlenecks, meaning he likes to have more than one course of action on the table at any given moment, even if all of them converge on the same goal. The notion that he will not run could grant him a large discount in a plea bargain he is pursuing vigorously. At the same time, Netanyahu is increasing his threats against the system. In fact, this is the only way to explain the judicial legislation blitz. In other words, Netanyahu sees the polls, not the ones from the propaganda channels, but those that seek to predict the results rather than shape them, and understands that his situation is dire. In such a situation there is apparently no great logic in splitting the attorney general’s position, subordinating the police internal investigations unit to the Justice Ministry, or legislation that would increase government influence over the media, and more. Only a madman would hand all this as a gift to the next government, the current opposition, and Netanyahu is perhaps the most level-headed politician ever to have been here. In fact, what is happening here is that Netanyahu is intensifying the threat to the system, in the sense of, offer me a better deal or I will unleash Levin and Karhi, who may not save my election, but will bring the civilian militias named after Mordechai David to the homes of the president and the president of the Supreme Court.

Still within the assumption that Trump wants to help Netanyahu: he is turning on him, supposedly, because it currently serves them both in the domestic arena, Netanyahu is eager to prove he is not a puppet, and Trump has a domestic American interest, troubling in itself, to cool the closeness to Israel, but this will only intensify the renewed embrace he gives him ahead of the election. The problem with this thesis is that something here does not fit the same timeline. That is, the Trumpian embrace is supposed to come, at the latest, in the second week of October in order to have maximum influence on the Israeli election, but that would be right before the U.S. midterm elections, which could hurt him.

Now let us examine the opposite angle: Trump is angry at Netanyahu, who promised him an easy victory over Iran but dragged him into a war that is severely complicating the second half of his term as president of the United States. Here the possibilities divide between the strategic and the tactical. The tactical one is easy to understand: Trump fears that Netanyahu will defy him and strike in the Dahieh, for example, not to mention Iran, and wants to send him a threat that is on the one hand implied and on the other clear and frightening, namely, just mess with me one more time and I will make sure to destroy you politically...

Even those who long for the end of Netanyahu’s rule should be worried / official website, Arnon Bosani, Kokhav Nolad

It is true that such a mindset in itself is very bad news for Netanyahu, but it is less bad than the second possibility, according to which the die has already been cast. In this scenario, Trump is no longer the bad cop, the one threatening Netanyahu, but more like a flight attendant gesturing toward the emergency exits... In other words, what Trump is actually telling Netanyahu is: it is over, my friend, you can choose between running and losing or sparing yourself the humiliation of ending such a long term in an electoral defeat.

So which of the above possibilities is correct? It is not clear. In almost every possible scenario, this is not an encouraging hint for Netanyahu, but more than that, it is very bad news for the citizens of Israel, even if they come from the camp that hopes for his downfall: Washington has become the sole determiner of our fate. One time it is a strike in Iran, another it is the election. In other words, if there is one thing that symbolizes the change Israel has undergone in the three and a half years since Benjamin Netanyahu’s sixth government was formed, it is the transformation of the Star of David in the center of the Israeli flag into the 51st star on the U.S. flag.