US and Israel Freeze Major Fronts Until After November Elections Amid Iran Tensions
The current strategic stance between the US and Israel involves a temporary freeze on military and diplomatic actions across key fronts, primarily concerning Iran, Gaza, and Lebanon, lasting at least until after the US midterm elections on November 8 and likely beyond the Israeli elections. US President Donald Trump and his team have concluded that negotiations with Iran will not yield immediate results, prompting a shift to a lower-profile approach. Trump described this in an interview with Israeli journalist Barak Ravid as a pause in both military escalation and diplomatic talks, while maintaining economic pressure through enforcement of existing sanctions and a naval blockade on Iranian ports.
This pause excludes the continued allowance of crude oil and natural gas exports through the Strait of Hormuz, facilitated by ongoing negotiations between Iran and Oman, with US backing behind the scenes. The US insists that ships passing through Hormuz will not pay transit fees to Iran, threatening sanctions if they do. This arrangement aims to ease global oil price pressures affecting the US market.
Four main factors influenced this strategic shift: Trump’s desire to retain Republican majorities in Congress to preserve his freedom of action; recognition that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are hardening their stance due to perceived US weakness; worsening economic conditions in Iran that the US hopes will eventually force Tehran to negotiate more reasonably or collapse; and the Pentagon’s need to replenish depleted missile and interceptor stockpiles before any renewed conflict.
Meanwhile, US and Israeli coordination continues quietly in Gaza, preparing for potential future moves under Trump’s original 20-point plan. This includes creating a temporary residential neighborhood between Khan Yunis and Rafah for vetted Palestinians currently under Hamas control, and establishing a multinational stabilization force camp in northern Rafah to separate Hamas from Israeli forces during a phased disarmament and withdrawal. These preparations occur within Israeli-controlled territory and do not reflect the recently proposed 15-point peace roadmap, which Israel rejects due to disagreements over Hamas disarmament and control of weaponry.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly opposed the peace council’s phased disarmament plan, and the US administration has not responded, suggesting Washington understands Israel’s position ahead of the elections. Consequently, no significant developments are expected in the Iranian, Gaza, or Lebanese arenas until after the US and Israeli elections.
