Protein Frenzy Drives Global Whey Shortage and Record Prices

Consumers around the world are demanding more protein in almost everything they eat, and that surge is colliding with a tightening supply of whey protein, a byproduct of cheese making. Sports and older consumers already use whey shakes to build or preserve muscle, and food companies have recently added it to cereals, chips, bagels, tortillas and even Starbucks drinks. NielsenIQ says the average U.S. supermarket now carries 38,708 products that advertise protein content, but the rush to meet ingredient-focused demand is pushing high-quality whey into shortage and sending prices to new highs.

Kathleen Wolfley, vice president of Ever.Ag Insights, said, “Demand is very strong and it seems to be outpacing supply right now.” Wholesale whey prices began rising in 2024, accelerated last year and have kept climbing this year. In the U.S., 80% whey, the type most often used by food makers and supplement companies, has topped $13 per half kilogram, 250% more than a year ago. Whey isolate, a purer form with at least 90% protein, is up 150% from last year. Europe is seeing the same pattern, with whey reaching 26,450 euros per metric ton at the end of May, more than double the year-earlier price.

The U.S. has been keeping more whey at home because domestic appetite for high-protein snacks and meals remains strong, even as milk consumption has fallen for decades. Much of the excess whey that once went to China and other markets is no longer available. Exports of 80% whey to China fell 47% from January through April versus the same period last year. Jasper Endlich of Vesper said, “There simply is not enough product for the American customer, so exports have been suspended as much as possible.” China is now seeking more whey from Europe, which is also short because of reduced U.S. exports.

One major driver of demand is the spread of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs such as Wegovy and Zepbound. Because these medicines suppress appetite, users are encouraged to eat nutrient-dense foods and consume enough protein to stay full and preserve muscle while losing weight. About 6% of U.S. obesity and diabetes patients and 2% of such patients worldwide used weight-loss injections last year, and some estimates put U.S. adult use at 12%. Food and nutrition companies are responding with more protein-fortified products aimed at those consumers and at people replacing meals with protein shakes.

Higher raw-material costs are already filtering through to shoppers. Now Foods, a health food and supplement maker in Illinois, said whey protein powder boxes are its top-selling sports nutrition item, but after two years of higher input costs it raised prices earlier this year. The company does not expect another increase this year and is cutting discounts to absorb some of the expense, while considering expanding into milk protein concentrate, which contains less whey and is cheaper. Producers are investing in new whey capacity, but relief will not be immediate. Glanbia said in November it will expand whey output in New Mexico, though the added capacity will not be available until 2027. Agropur announced in February plans to raise production in Quebec, Nova Scotia, South Dakota and Wisconsin. Wolfley said the market may improve, but not quickly: “I do not know if that is a tomorrow dynamic or a within-a-year dynamic. Some of these things will take time.”