Trump Administration Pursues Limited Pressure Strategy Against Iran Without Full-Scale War or Agreement

The ongoing tension between the United States and Iran is unlikely to escalate into a full-scale regional war or result in a comprehensive agreement, according to analysis by Yair Marton. Iran recognizes that a broad conflict could threaten the regime's survival, while the U.S., weary after two decades of Middle Eastern wars, is not seeking territorial conquest. Instead, the U.S. aims to systematically degrade Iran's missile capabilities, command structures, and military infrastructure, maintaining room for diplomacy should Tehran alter its course.

Iran has warned that any military or economic pressure could expand the battlefield beyond Israel and the Persian Gulf, targeting shipping routes, energy infrastructure, and the global economy to leverage pressure on Washington and European nations. The likelihood of further U.S. strikes remains high as long as Iran continues attacks on American forces, international shipping, and U.S. allies. However, the U.S. interest lies in containment rather than regime change.

Israel is expected to continue acting against direct threats but prefers the U.S. to lead broader operations. Should Iran or its proxies launch significant attacks against Israel, Jerusalem will respond decisively. Despite ongoing hostilities, the scenario of a comprehensive regional war is considered unlikely.

The conflict is anticipated to persist as a war of attrition, with continued strikes, sabotage, economic damage, and proxy attacks. Concurrently, diplomatic efforts may continue, reflecting the Middle East's pattern where war and diplomacy often proceed simultaneously. The critical question remains which side will concede first: Iran facing strategic erosion or the West deciding between deterrence and a fundamental shift in regional power dynamics.