US declares El Nino has officially begun

US authorities have officially declared that El Nino began, after months of monitoring sharp rises in sea-surface temperatures. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday that the climate pattern, which warms the planet and can trigger disasters worldwide, is now underway.

Meteorologists and climate organizations say the current episode is likely to be among the strongest ever recorded. NOAA’s latest forecast gives a 63% chance of a “super El Nino,” a rare and especially intense version of the phenomenon. El Nino alters weather patterns across the globe through warming in the Pacific Ocean.

The event increases the likelihood of extreme weather, including heat waves, floods and droughts. In combination with other drivers of global warming, it could bring another year of record heat by late 2026 and into 2027, affecting food supplies for millions and damaging the global economy.

A senior official at the UK Met Office told the BBC that “towards the end of this year and during 2027, we are likely to see very high global temperatures.” Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli told Euronews, “I think we will see weather events we have never seen in modern history.” The last El Nino was in 2024, the hottest year ever measured, and was considered much weaker than the current one. El Nino typically occurs every 2 to 7 years and lasts about 9 to 12 months.