Enigmatic Deal: Israel Caught Off Guard by Qatar-Mediated Breakthrough
Progress in the talks between the United States and Iran, mediated by Qatar, was known to Israel. But President of the United States Donald Trump’s post saying that “all sides agreed,” and Iran’s effective confirmation that there was a “high chance we will approve the deal,” clearly surprised Israel.
An Israeli source said that “it does not seem that Mojtaba approved the deal, at least not officially,” but shortly afterward Trump said that, to his understanding, Iran’s Supreme Leader had given his approval. “It seems Trump is eager for calm during the World Cup,” said the same source, against the backdrop of the breakthrough, on the opening day of the World Cup in football, which the United States is co-hosting with Mexico and Canada.
In the first response from the Prime Minister’s Office, after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s conversation with Trump, Netanyahu effectively confirmed that the deal was indeed close and did not publicly oppose it. “President Trump spoke this evening with Prime Minister Netanyahu about the emerging memorandum of understanding with Iran for entering negotiations,” the response said. The Prime Minister’s Office also said that “although Israel is not a party to the memorandum of understanding, the prime minister expressed his appreciation for President Trump’s commitment that the final agreement at the end of the negotiations will include the removal of enriched material, the dismantling of enrichment infrastructure, limits on missile production and an end to Iran’s support for its terrorist proxies in the region.”
In effect, this response also confirmed that uranium and nuclear matters are not part of the agreement Trump announced. Israel did not want this deal, and still hopes that the talks will collapse and that Mojtaba will not approve it. Its details remain an enigma. Iran claimed that the United States backed down from its demands, and it is not clear whether Trump indeed stood by his conditions that the frozen funds not be released, that nuclear facilities be dismantled, and that there be zero uranium enrichment.
This is a framework agreement that sets a 60-day timetable for negotiations over a nuclear deal, with an additional 60-day extension, but the chances that the United States and Iran will actually reach an agreement within this period appear slim. Obama, it should be recalled, needed a year and a half of talks, and it already appears that the ballistic missiles issue and the proxies are out. The big question, and the main point of contention, is how much money Iran will receive. As far as is known, a compromise was reached, Iran will not receive cash, but will be able to buy medicine and food with money held by the Qataris. The Americans insist that the frozen funds will not be released before the uranium stockpiles are dealt with, but that issue will be discussed in the negotiations.
This is, in practice, an agreement that guarantees a ceasefire, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and an Iranian commitment not to pursue nuclear weapons. For Trump, that is enough to declare victory and enter the World Cup in a period of calm. Israel will certainly try to influence the negotiations during the 60-day period. Given how much it was surprised by the framework agreement, it is doubtful that Israel will have a place at the table.
In the Prime Minister’s Office statement, Israel reminded Trump of his red lines, the removal of enriched material, the dismantling of enrichment infrastructure, limits on missile production and an end to Iran’s support for its terrorist proxies in the region. During the day, the assessment in Israel was that Trump planned to increase military pressure to force Iran to accept his terms, and the unusual public threat to seize the “oil island” of Kharg was evidence of that. But this evening, after canceling the planned strike in Iran, following two consecutive days of nightly exchanges of fire, Trump said that “the operation in Kharg is off the table.”
Behind the scenes, as noted, there was significant progress in the Qatar-mediated talks. That was also reported by the Iranian news agency Fars, which said the breakthrough began with Qatar’s entry into mediation. Israel knew there had been progress, but did not understand exactly where the United States and Iran were headed, and was clearly surprised. Senior Israeli officials do not rule out the possibility that Trump’s threat did its work and caused Khamenei to agree to swallow the bitter pill, even if only for a temporary 60-day negotiating agreement that would require them to open the Strait of Hormuz.
