Five Key Questions to Decide Israel's October Election Outcome

With 100 days remaining until Israel's October 27 general election, the official campaign has begun following a controversial legislative blitz and the start of the summer recess. The Knesset is now closed until the new parliament is sworn in mid-November, as candidates and party leaders compete intensely for voter support.

The central question is whether the election will produce a clear winner. Neither side currently holds a majority without the Arab parties, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Likud campaigning that the opposition cannot form a government without them. Netanyahu's opponents accuse him of relying on ultra-Orthodox parties and recent legislative maneuvers to secure a coalition. The decisive factor will be the 10-20% of undecided voters, representing 12 to 24 seats, who could swing the results.

The impact of the October 7 massacre remains uncertain. Although it was Israel's deadliest attack, Netanyahu believes its political effect is already reflected in current polls and will not shift voter sentiment further. Instead, he is more concerned about damage from recent controversial legislation, such as immunity laws for defectors.

Campaign themes will focus on security achievements and judicial reform, aiming to energize Netanyahu's base amid waning confidence in his security credentials since October 7. The opposition will highlight Netanyahu's alleged evasion of accountability for the massacre and criticize his deals with ultra-Orthodox parties, including controversial draft exemption laws.

A major challenge for the opposition "change bloc" is uniting behind a single candidate to face Netanyahu. The leadership contest has shifted between Naftali Bennett and Gadi Eizenkot, with Avigdor Lieberman also in the mix. A unified front could involve a joint list combining Bennett-Lapid and Eizenkot factions.

Finally, small right-wing parties outside Likud and the coalition could be kingmakers. These parties, disillusioned with Netanyahu or opposing the ultra-Orthodox influence in Religious Zionism, are free to support either side and could provide the crucial 61-seat majority. Analysts differ on whether these parties ultimately help Netanyahu by reclaiming right-wing votes or aid the opposition by enabling a government change.