Private Investor Trading Drops 21% During World Cup Decisive Matches, Study Finds
A study by Israeli investment firm IBI revealed that private investor activity on the stock market declined by approximately 21% on average during the quarterfinal and semifinal matches of the 2026 World Cup. The analysis focused on three matches held between July 9 and 15, which coincided with trading hours and were broadcast from 10 p.m. to midnight Israel time. These hours also overlapped with the last hour of trading on Wall Street, typically one of the busiest periods of the day.
IBI compared trading patterns during these match hours to 30 regular trading days in the same weekdays from May to July, adjusting for seasonal and daylight saving time differences. Normally, about 10% of retail client trades occur between 10 p.m. and 11 p.m., but during the quarterfinal between Spain and Belgium and the semifinal between Argentina and England, this dropped to around 7%, and to 8% during the semifinal between Spain and France. Overall, the decline in trading volume during these matches ranged from 12% to 26%, averaging 21%.
IBI noted that the World Cup significantly impacts the stock market, especially among its mostly male client base, who tend to prioritize watching the games over trading during the critical last hour on Wall Street. Other investment firms confirmed this trend, acknowledging that retail traders divert their attention during major sports events, although the current World Cup’s late-night schedule somewhat mitigated the drop.
This study aligns with previous academic research showing a strong correlation between major sports events and reduced stock market activity. For example, a 2010 study published in the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking found that during World Cup matches involving the national team, transaction numbers fell by about 45%, and trading volumes shrank by 48% to 55%. The research also indicated that local markets became less sensitive to global market movements during these times. A 2023 study in the Journal of Financial Markets similarly found that trading activity spikes before matches but declines sharply during the games themselves.
