World Cup 2026 Spurs Record Growth in Prediction Market Platforms

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to become the largest betting event in history, significantly boosting activity on prediction market platforms, CNBC reports. In June, the Kalshi platform saw trading volumes exceed $31 billion, a 70% increase from May, maintaining daily volumes above $1 billion since the World Cup began on June 11. Polymarket also set a new record with $10.8 billion in trading volume in June, up from $7 billion in May and $9 billion in April, with its U.S. segment reaching $3.5 billion in June compared to $1.77 billion in May.

Trading volumes on these platforms are calculated by multiplying the number of contracts by the contract price, typically one dollar each. Ahead of the U.S. versus Belgium round of 16 match on the night of June 26-27 (Israel time), Kalshi reported $64 million in bets on the U.S. winning the tournament (4.3% probability), while Polymarket recorded $122 million (3% probability). Both platforms have leveraged World Cup-themed promotions to attract users; Polymarket launched a contest offering up to $2 million for a perfect knockout stage bracket, and Kalshi promoted the ability to "trade the World Cup" in the Apple App Store.

The World Cup frenzy also benefited Rothera, a prediction platform jointly launched by investment firm Susquehanna and trading app Robinhood in June. Robinhood began routing certain World Cup game contracts to Rothera, which saw $2 billion in trading volume in June and now controls 7% of the U.S. prediction market, according to Bank of America.