Economy02:00 · Jun 11

World Cup Betting Boom Set to Break Records, and Fuel Warnings of Addiction and Debt

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99% of bettors will lose: The World Cup’s giant trap

Efrat Briner, 10 minutes ago

The FIFA World Cup is expected to become the biggest betting event ever, with an unprecedented global betting forecast of more than $50 billion. This huge surge, which reflects an average of about $500 million per match, is driven by the increase in the number of teams in the tournament, favorable viewing hours around the world, and the expansion of the legal betting market in the United States. Betting companies are preparing for enormous profits, but prevention and reform organizations warn of a global debt crisis and severe addiction traps.

World Cup 2026, the global football celebration that will open in the United States, Canada and Mexico, is set to completely shatter global betting market records this coming summer. According to a comprehensive forecast published this week by the financial services firm Macquarie, the total amount wagered on the tournament will jump from $35 billion at the Qatar World Cup in 2022 to an imaginary sum of more than $50 billion. Alongside public anticipation, the official figures are now prompting cries of alarm from social reform activists and unusual warnings from regulators in the United States, who are trying to stop the spread of commercial gambling into the lives of hundreds of thousands of young people.

3 + Illustration | Photo: Reuters

Analyst Chad Benyon of Macquarie explained in an interview with the BBC that the dramatic increase in betting revenue is mainly due to a structural change in the tournament itself, the number of participating teams this year has grown from 32 to 48. As a result, the World Cup schedule will span six weeks and include more than 100 matches, compared with only 64 matches played in Qatar in 2022. In addition, the favorable time zones of the host countries will boost global viewing figures and fuel the urge to bet among sports fans in Europe, Latin America and Africa. Another major growth engine is the American market, this is the first World Cup in history in which a clear majority of the U.S. population, about 65%, can legally bet on sports, a significant jump from only 40% in 2022.

3 + The World Cup in Qatar | Photo: Reuters

However, Benyon warns that the tournament could turn out to be a "flash-in-the-pan success" for betting giants if they fail to turn one-time bettors into "regular multi-sport bettors." According to him, the companies that stand to benefit most from the current wave are those operating digital casino platforms within their sports betting sites, which allow users to quickly move into games with a higher addiction potential.

Behind the glossy numbers lies a heavy human cost. Les Bernal, national director of the organization Stop Predatory Gambling, warned that hundreds of thousands of people around the world, especially young men, will suffer life-altering debt and severe financial distress because of World Cup games. Bernal emphasized a chilling figure, "99 out of 100 sports bettors lose money in the long run. The business model of commercial sports betting operators is entirely based on people who have become addicted gamblers, an addiction that causes victims to take their own lives at a rate unmatched by any other addiction."

3 + Illustration | Photo: Shutterstock

Reform activists, such as Matt Zarb-Cousin in Britain, reinforce these claims and point out that betting companies are using the World Cup to carry out "cross-marketing" and push more addictive and aggressive casino content to football bettors. This economic reality is supported by research from the National Centre for Social Research in Britain, which found that 79% of all betting company profits come from the top decile of the heaviest bettors, people who wagered at least about $7,500 in a single year.

At the same time as betting fever on the field, online prediction markets in the United States face much tougher regulation. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the U.S. body overseeing prediction markets as well as oil and commodity markets, proposed this week to impose severe restrictions and to completely ban betting and predictions on sensitive topics such as "terrorism, assassinations, war, gaming or conduct that is unlawful under federal or state law."

3 + The World Cup in Qatar | Photo: Reuters

These prediction markets sparked widespread public outrage after allowing users to bet against one another on outcomes and events from the wars in Ukraine and Iran. Following the harsh public criticism, the prediction market operator Kalshi stopped running such venues. By contrast, its larger rival, Polymarket, still operates prediction markets on these security-related topics, but does not charge fees on them, and previously told the BBC that removing these prediction markets would not affect the events themselves on the ground.

Group draw

Group A, Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Czech Republic Group B, Canada, Bosnia, Qatar, Switzerland Group C, Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, Scotland Group D, United States, Paraguay, Australia, Turkey Group E, Germany, Curacao, Ivory Coast, Ecuador Group F, Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia Group G, Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand Group H, Spain, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay Group I, France, Senegal, Iraq, Norway Group J, Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan Group K, Portugal, Congo, Uzbekistan, Colombia Group L, England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama

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