Tel Aviv Researchers Predict Next Fish Species to Invade Mediterranean from Red Sea

Since the opening of the Suez Canal over 150 years ago, more than 120 fish species have migrated from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean. Researchers at Tel Aviv University have developed a new statistical model to predict which species are most likely to invade the Mediterranean next. The model highlights three species with particularly high invasion potential: the starry pufferfish (Arothron stellatus), the seven-spined goatfish (Parupeneus heptacantha), and the yellow-spotted cornetfish (Turrum fulvoguttatum).

The study was led by Dr. Shahar Haykin as part of his doctoral research under Professor Yoni Belmaker at Tel Aviv University's School of Zoology. The research team also included Dr. Tal Gabriel, doctoral student Avery Debto, and Shahar Malmud. Published in the Journal of Animal Ecology, the model ranks Red Sea fish species by their likelihood of becoming future Mediterranean migrants, aiming to help authorities and conservationists prepare for upcoming invasions amid Mediterranean warming.

To identify invasion candidates, the researchers deployed underwater stereo video cameras at depths of 5 to 150 meters in the Gulf of Eilat and along Israel's Mediterranean coast. They analyzed 179 fish populations, comparing species that have already invaded the Mediterranean with those remaining in the Red Sea. Contrary to previous assumptions, the key factor enabling invasion was not habitat generalism but independence from coral reefs, which are scarce in the Mediterranean. Species reliant on coral reefs struggle to migrate, while those not dependent on reefs are more successful invaders.

The study also found that once established in the Mediterranean, invasive fish rapidly adapt their habitat preferences, often occupying the same ecological niches as native species. This suggests a higher potential for competition over food, shelter, and space than previously thought. Professor Belmaker emphasized that their approach shifts focus from analyzing past invasions to predicting future ones, enabling proactive ecological management.

With ongoing Mediterranean warming, the ability of tropical species to establish themselves is expected to increase. The researchers advocate integrating such predictive models into monitoring programs to facilitate early detection and better preparation for ecological changes in the Mediterranean Sea.