Israeli Security Officials Warn of Imminent Turkish Military Expansion in Syria

Israeli security officials have expressed growing concern over Turkey's increasing involvement in Syria, describing its deeper military presence there as "a matter of time." According to a security source cited on the Kan News program "Binyamini and Guetta," Ankara is actively engaged in building the new Syrian army, establishing military infrastructure, and advancing its strategic interests within the country. This development is viewed as complex and significant given Syria's possession of strategic weapons and its proximity to Israel's northern border.

The Israeli Defense Forces continue to maintain forces in the buffer zone and the Mount Hermon area as part of their preparations for evolving conditions across the border. Officials emphasize that the main worry is not immediate events but the long-term trajectory of the emerging Syrian state. Over the past 18 months, Syria has been gradually reconstructing its governmental institutions and military capabilities. Israeli intelligence monitors Damascus closely, noting that Syrian leader Ahmad al-Shara is cautious to avoid provoking harsh international responses by limiting further harm to minority groups.

Nonetheless, reports indicate ongoing repression of minorities, restrictions on religious freedom and movement, and economic pressures in areas such as the Druze Mountain. The security source stated, "He is primarily building the army first, then the state," highlighting uncertainty about the nature of the future Syrian regime on Israel's northern frontier. Israeli officials fear Syria could evolve into a Sunni Islamist state with a powerful military posing a future threat.

The international community is perceived as focusing on Syria's reunification and reconstruction, but Israeli officials warn it is not sufficiently scrutinizing the regime's character or its treatment of minorities including Druze, Christians, Alawites, and Kurds. The official said, "The narrative sold worldwide is of a new, united state for all its citizens, but the reality is more complex." Israel currently regards Syria as an enemy state and cautions that beyond immediate threats from hostile actors and Hezbollah's ongoing activities, it is critical to consider Syria's future military strength and political alignment.

Separately, talks between Israel and Syria are expected to resume under U.S. pressure after a period of stagnation. Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has labeled Israel a threat to Turkey, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Erdoğan an anti-Semitic dictator.