Kan News Poll: Smotrich Crosses the Electoral Threshold for the First Time as Likud Slips

In a Kan News poll published tonight, Thursday, on the Kan News edition, Likud fell by three seats compared with the previous poll. By contrast, Yesh Atid rose by one seat. However, the current coalition bloc remained unchanged after the Religious Zionism party passed the electoral threshold for the first time.

The poll also found that a run by the Arab parties on a joint list would weaken the Netanyahu bloc, while an alliance between Bennett and Eisenkot would strengthen the bloc led by the prime minister. In addition, 60% of voters are concerned about harm to the integrity of the upcoming elections.

Seat distribution, in parentheses the number of seats in the previous poll from May 20: Likud, 24 (27); Yachad, 23 (23); Yesh Atid, 17 (16); Otzma Yehudit, 10 (9); the Democrats, 9 (10); Israel Beytenu, 8 (8); Shas, 8 (9); United Torah Judaism, 7 (8); Hadash-Ta'al, 6 (5); Religious Zionism, 4 (did not pass); Ra'am, 4 (5).

Likud remains the largest party in the poll with 24 seats, down from 27. It is followed by Yachad, led by Naftali Bennett, which stays at 23 seats. Yesh Atid gets 17 seats, up by one from the previous poll. Ben Gvir's Otzma Yehudit strengthens by one seat to 10, overtaking the Democrats, which falls to 9. Israel Beytenu and Shas each receive 8 seats in the poll. United Torah Judaism follows with 7 seats, Hadash-Ta'al with 6, and Ra'am with 4.

Smotrich's Religious Zionism party passes the electoral threshold for the first time in this election cycle and stands at 4. Blue and White (2.3%), the Reservists Party (2.1%) and Balad (1.5%) did not pass the threshold. In such a case, the Netanyahu bloc gets 53 seats, the bloc of parties opposed to Netanyahu has 57 seats, and the Arab parties have 10 seats, so neither bloc reaches the 61-seat majority.

The poll also examined a joint run by Naftali Bennett and Gadi Eisenkot. Such an alliance would become the largest party with 38 seats, as in the previous poll. In that case, Likud weakens, but Smotrich's party passes the threshold, and the coalition bloc strengthens to 54 seats. By contrast, if the Arab parties were to unite on a joint list, they would win 13 seats and the Netanyahu bloc would weaken to 52 seats.

60% fear harm to election integrity

Respondents were also asked about concerns over damage to the integrity of the upcoming election. Sixty percent said they feared such harm, while 28% said they did not. Among coalition voters, 41% said they feared such a possibility.

In addition, 45% of respondents said they oppose the appointment of attorney Michael Ravilo as state comptroller. The poll also found that 45% of the public believes that statements by government members against the judicial system encouraged acts such as the break-in to the home of Justice Noam Sohlberg and the damage caused there. In addition, 52% of respondents believe IDF forces should continue to remain in southern Lebanon at this time.

The poll was conducted on 04.06.26 by the Kantar Institute. It included 551 men and women aged 18 and over. The poll was conducted using an online sample and included the Arab sector. The number of people asked to answer the poll was 2,387. The sampling error is plus or minus 4.2%.