Israel Faces Extreme Heatwaves of 50°C and 18-Day Duration by Century's End, Meteorological Service Warns
Translated & summarized from Calcalist by baba
Israel's Meteorological Service warns of extreme heatwaves reaching 50°C and lasting up to 18 days by the end of the century, urging urgent government and societal preparation as actual warming already exceeds worst-case climate models.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Israel will face heatwaves up to 50°C lasting 18 days by century's end, per meteorological forecasts.
- Average temperatures have risen 0.6°C per decade, one of the fastest warming rates globally.
- Heatwave frequency and intensity will increase, with 45°C events becoming common every 1-3 years.
- 25 of 28 government ministries lack climate adaptation plans; no climate ministers' committee meetings held.
- Urban heat island effect will raise city temperatures 3-6°C above surroundings, worsening impacts.
- Heatwaves already disrupt infrastructure, including electricity and rail services, with broader economic risks.
Israel's Meteorological Service has released an updated baseline scenario forecasting extreme heatwaves and record temperatures by the end of the century, urging comprehensive preparation across government and society. The report warns of heatwaves reaching 50 degrees Celsius in the Jordan Valley and lasting up to 18 days, with nationwide heatwaves potentially enduring 18 days. Officials emphasize that actual warming is already surpassing the most pessimistic climate models, demanding immediate action to protect infrastructure, public health, and the economy.
The service highlighted that Israel is warming at a rate exceeding half a degree Celsius per decade, one of the fastest globally, with average temperatures rising about 0.6 degrees per decade over the past 30 years. Nighttime temperatures are also increasing, reducing natural cooling periods and intensifying heat stress. Nearly all historical temperature records have been set since 2000, reflecting the impact of unchecked greenhouse gas emissions.
Short-term projections indicate coastal and lowland areas could experience temperatures of 45 to 47 degrees Celsius, while the Jordan Valley may reach 50 degrees. By century's end, peak temperatures are expected to rise 5 to 7 degrees above current levels, with coastal heatwaves reaching up to 53 degrees. Heatwave frequency will increase dramatically; events above 45 degrees, now occurring once every 100 years, may happen every 1 to 3 years by 2100. Heatwaves will also lengthen from about 4 days today to 18 days.
The report criticizes Israel's lack of preparedness, noting that 25 of 28 government ministries have not developed climate adaptation plans, and the Minister of Environmental Protection has not convened the climate ministers' committee even once. Recent European heatwaves have disrupted daily life, and Israel is expected to face similar challenges soon. The Meteorological Service calls for urgent government action to adapt infrastructure and public services to the escalating climate threats.
"Extreme heatwaves will impact every sector," the service warned, citing last year's heat-related electricity supply disruptions and railway slowdowns. Urban areas will suffer more due to the urban heat island effect, with temperature differences of 3 to 6 degrees above surrounding areas. The service urges all ministries to prepare now for the broad consequences of climate change.
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