Rising Iranian Nationalism Undermines US Negotiations Amid Internal Shifts and Israeli-American Covert Efforts
Iranian nationalism is intensifying amid ongoing conflict and the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, significantly disrupting diplomatic talks with the United States. According to a Wall Street Journal investigation by Benoit Faucon, hardline nationalist factions within Iran are fostering a hostile environment for diplomats, obstructing agreement on terms that would end fighting and lift sanctions. These factions view any deal as a betrayal of the Islamic Republic's interests. Despite this, the regime still faces deep unpopularity among large segments of the population.
The article highlights how the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) enforces nationalist demands by repeatedly firing at commercial ships in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, defying commitments to keep the waterway open. Iranian legislator Mahmoud Nabavian criticized negotiations over Hormuz's management as a "clear and glaring weakness," asserting the IRGC's exclusive control over the strait. Analysts suggest the IRGC uses this control to maintain internal dominance and leverage against the US, banking on nationalist sentiment to consolidate power.
Personal stories illustrate a societal shift in Iran, with former regime critics now publicly supporting the government. A 40-year-old teacher who once protested mandatory hijab laws recently joined a pro-regime rally, noting unprecedented displays of women without head coverings and Western-style attire. Similarly, a 34-year-old entrepreneur who suffered severe injuries during 2022 protests now proudly wears a military uniform, citing a change in perspective after family losses and foreign attacks.
Separately, a report by New Arab reveals a covert collaboration between the US Middle East Forum (MEF) and Israel's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) aimed at destabilizing the Iranian regime before the current conflict. The project, led by INSS expert Dr. Raz Zimmt, sought to map vulnerabilities within Iran’s diverse provinces by analyzing open-source Persian-language data and social media. While the leaked documents do not confirm operational use, the initiative intended to identify pressure points in military and civil sectors. MEF denied involvement, and Israeli officials did not respond to inquiries.
In unrelated news, Israeli tech firm Cognyte is expanding its surveillance technology sales in the US, equipping Texas police with vehicles capable of tracking nearby cell phones by mimicking cellular antennas. This technology, also sold to law enforcement in New Mexico and New York, allows covert monitoring of suspects and civilians alike. Cognyte positions itself as a leading alternative to Palantir, with US revenues rising from $10 million in 2023 to $15 million in 2025.
These developments reflect complex geopolitical and internal dynamics in Iran, alongside growing Israeli-American cooperation on intelligence and surveillance technologies.
