Trump Faces Renewed Iran Conflict as US Midterm Elections Approach
Around midnight between Sunday and Monday in Israel time, US President Donald Trump will present the World Cup trophy to the winning team in New Jersey. This event may also mark the start of renewed conflict between the US and Iran. Trump faces multiple challenges in 2026, including unresolved tensions with Iran, criticism from both Republican and Democratic parties over support for Israel, and the growing threat from China, which recently launched a submarine-launched ballistic missile with a range of about 7,300 km, far exceeding Iran's missile capabilities. Above all, the looming US midterm elections in November add pressure on Trump, who is aware of the historical trend that incumbent presidents often lose the House majority during midterms.
During his first term, Trump lost the House majority in 2018 but retained the Senate, allowing him to advance key appointments despite legislative difficulties. However, his second term lacks a major strategic achievement. While the fall of Maduro's regime, the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace agreement, and reduced hostilities between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo are positive developments, none are transformative. The ceasefire in Gaza and the return of Israeli hostages are significant from an Israeli perspective, but the framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon appears fragile and unlikely to lead to Hezbollah disarmament.
Regarding Iran, the regime of the ayatollahs remains resilient, unaffected by Israeli pressure. Trump initially believed a swift, intense air and naval strike combined with proxy Kurdish forces invading from Iraq could topple the regime. However, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's opposition forced Trump to abandon this plan, signaling to Iran that such a war would not be decisive. Despite unprecedented damage to Iran, the regime prioritizes its survival over its citizens' welfare. The decision not to exact a ground price from Iran has led to Iranian patience, especially as they await the World Cup's conclusion, the US's 250th independence anniversary, and Trump's 80th birthday.
Under pressure from his inner circle and hardline Republicans, Trump made the strategic error of a framework agreement with Iran, which was ultimately terminated early Sunday due to Iran's renewed blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This move forces Trump back to square one. Iran's actions have indirectly benefited Israel, but Trump is expected to delay military escalation until after the World Cup trophy presentation to avoid overshadowing the event with breaking news of Middle East conflict. Afterward, he must decide how to proceed, as continued conflict in the Hormuz region until the midterms could cost Republicans control of both the House and Senate, leaving Trump politically constrained for the remainder of his term.
In summary, Iran's renewed blockade complicates the regime's situation but is unlikely to cause its collapse within the next three and a half months. Trump faces a difficult balancing act between managing international crises and domestic political survival as the midterm elections approach.
