Iran-US Tensions Escalate in Strait of Hormuz Over New Shipping Route and Fees

In the past 24 hours, Iran and the United States have entered a new round of escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, causing Brent crude oil prices to surge to around $76 per barrel. The current wave of attacks began when Iran's Revolutionary Guards targeted three tankers attempting to pass through the southern maritime area of the strait, located in Omani waters.

Historically, ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz via its northern section, under Iranian jurisdiction. However, Iran now prohibits passage without approval and demands a fee of approximately $2 million per tanker, potentially generating up to $10 billion annually. This has led to the establishment of an alternative shipping route through Omani waters, which Iran views as a breach of their control and an infringement on their revenue stream.

Benny Sabti, an Iran expert at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), explained that Iran perceives its actions as a form of pressure on the US during negotiations, likening the situation to a "campaign between wars" similar to Israel's experience in Syria in the previous decade. The Gulf states, including Bahrain and Kuwait, are alarmed by the renewed Iranian attacks, which have disrupted regional oil exports.

In June, combined oil exports from Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq surpassed 10 million barrels per day, a significant increase from May but still about 40% below pre-conflict levels. The current escalation places US President Donald Trump in a difficult position ahead of the November midterm elections. Trump attended the NATO summit in Ankara amid these tensions, with his administration reportedly seeking serious negotiations rather than prolonged conflict.

Former Israeli consul in New York, Yaki Dayan, noted that the US prioritizes avoiding a broad war and is focused on the midterms. While a full-scale war remains possible, it is not a priority for the US administration, which aims to prevent further escalation. The key question remains whether Trump's advisors can restrain him from military action.