Trump Embraces Erdogan Amid US-Turkey Arms Deal Talks, Raising Israeli Security Concerns

US President Donald Trump arrived in Turkey on the afternoon before the NATO summit, bringing gifts that could please Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Since the outbreak of the October 7 war, Erdogan has taken a harshly critical stance against Israel, accusing it of genocide in Gaza and halting all trade with Israel. Leveraging his close ties with Trump, Erdogan is now attempting to improve Turkey's position in the evolving Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape.

A key issue is the potential US approval of selling F-35 stealth fighter jets to Turkey, a deal Trump blocked in 2019 due to Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 air defense systems. The US feared that combining the advanced stealth jets with Russian technology could expose vulnerabilities in the aircraft. Trump is reportedly considering lifting this veto and supplying Turkey with these jets, along with General Electric engines for Turkey's domestically produced KAAN fighter jets, in a deal valued at around $700 million.

This move is proceeding despite Israeli objections and concerns about maintaining its qualitative military edge (QME) in the Middle East. Israel currently operates the region's only advanced F-35 fleet, and it remains unclear if the US will enhance Israel's capabilities to preserve this advantage. Meanwhile, Trump has also signed a massive $140 billion arms deal with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, including F-35 jets, again bypassing Israeli input.

Domestically, Israel is grappling with a historic defense budget of 183 billion shekels for 2026, resolved recently after disputes between the Finance and Defense Ministries. However, tensions remain over potential additional funding requests later in the year. The Defense Ministry emphasizes the high costs of maintaining readiness amid threats from Iran, Hezbollah, and Gaza, including the deployment of thousands of reservists.

Looking ahead, the US-Israel military aid agreement, currently providing $3.8 billion annually, is set to expire in 2028. Recent discussions between the two countries aim to redefine the next decade's cooperation, focusing more on joint development of future military technologies rather than direct financial aid. These talks occur amid strained US-Israel relations, influenced by Trump's concessions to Iran and expanding US-Turkey arms cooperation, setting a tense backdrop for upcoming meetings between Israeli Defense Ministry officials and US counterparts.