Erdogan Challenges Israeli Defense Exports Amid NATO Arms Race
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is intensifying efforts to challenge Israel's dominance in defense exports within NATO, leveraging Turkey's growing military-industrial capabilities. Following the U.S. announcement to sell jet engines to Turkey for its stealth fighter jet development, expectations rise for Turkey's reintegration into the F-35 program, from which it was previously excluded due to its purchase of Russian air defense systems. This advanced stealth fighter will significantly strengthen the Turkish Air Force, aiding Erdogan's ambition to boost Turkey's regional power relative to Israel.
The upcoming NATO summit is expected to feature a strong anti-Israel stance from Erdogan, aiming to portray Israel as a security threat rather than an ally. He seeks to weaken Israel's position and its ties with NATO, particularly its cooperation with the U.S. Central Command and European defense institutions. Erdogan's campaign is not only political but also economic, as Turkey's defense exports surged by 47% in the past year to over $11 billion, mostly to NATO countries, including new sales of warships to Romania and training aircraft to Spain. This growth stems from Erdogan's massive investments in Turkey's defense industry, including Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), Roketsan missile manufacturer, and Baykar drone producer.
Israel still leads with $19.2 billion in defense exports projected for 2025, but Turkey is rapidly closing the gap with cheaper, improving-quality products sold globally, including to countries like Pakistan. Turkey's development of the KAAN stealth fighter, expected to enter production in seven years, could challenge major exporters like France. About $6.8 billion of Israel's recent exports were to NATO countries, mainly air defense systems such as Arrow, Barak MX, and David's Sling, which Erdogan aims to rival with Turkish-made air defense systems. However, during recent missile attacks from Iran, Turkey relied on U.S. Patriot systems for interception.
Israel's Ministry of Defense now actively promotes defense exports, recognizing their importance for national security, industry scale, and funding future weapons development. A new U.S.-Israel defense agreement is anticipated to enhance joint development and increase domestic production, with a goal to maintain exports at 50-70% of output to stay competitive globally. Additionally, Greece and Israel are close to signing a $3 billion deal for Israeli air defense systems under the "Achilles Heel" project, partly produced in Greece, strengthening their alliance against Turkish threats. Germany, another major customer of Israeli systems, also supports Israel's efforts to counterbalance Turkey's rising defense industry. The challenge for Israel's defense sector and military is to solidify alliances and contain Turkey's expanding influence.
